基于SEA的常规导弹封锁机场跑道作战效能分析的系统建模和解析  

System Modeling and Analysis of Operational Effectiveness on Conventional Missile Blocking Airport Runway Based on SEA

作　　者：李新其 李红霞[2] 邱艳粉 LI Xinqi;LI Hongxia;QIU Yanfen(Junior Command Department,Rocket Force University of Engineering,Xi’an 710025,China;Institute of Civil-Military Integration Development,Northwest University of Political Science and Law,Xi’an 710025,China;Unit 96723 of PLA,Liuzhou 545000,China)

机构地区：[1]火箭军工程大学初级指挥系,陕西西安710025 [2]西北政法大学军民融合发展研究院,陕西西安710025 [3]中国人民解放军96723部队,广西柳州545000

出　　处：《弹道学报》2023年第1期94-102,共9页Journal of Ballistics

基　　金：国防创新基金项目。

摘　　要：为快速分析解决常规导弹封锁机场跑道的作战效能,提出了一种基于系统效能分析(SEA)方法的作战效能分析方法。构建了基于SEA方法的常规导弹封锁机场跑道作战效能分析的框架结构和解析模型;结合导弹武器作战攻防体系对抗的特点,给出了封锁把握程度分布密度的计算方法并验证了模型的计算精度,该精度可满足实际作战需求。分析了抛撒子母弹分段切割机场跑道的封锁作战特点,运用成爆弹威力环“切割”跑道的思想,通过判断母弹落点与被“切割”跑道之间的几何关系,确定有利弹着区,在此基础上建立了刻画封锁把握程度的跑道失效概率的解析模型;为了构建反映机场跑道封锁与反封锁对抗过程的封锁时间计算模型,将跑道封锁时间划分为跑道损毁情况判定时间、确定跑道抢修方案时间、排爆作业时间和弹坑修复时间4个部分。构建了排爆作业和弹坑修复阶段作业时间的计算模型,以及封锁时间性能度量的解析模型。对封锁时间性能度量的概率密度函数进行了统计推断。研究结果为后续运用SEA方法进行常规导弹封锁机场跑道作战效能分析奠定了基础。To rapidly analyze the combat effectiveness of conventional missile blocking airport runway,a method of combat effectiveness analysis based on system effectiveness analysis(SEA)was proposed.The framework structure and operational model for effectiveness analysis of conventional missile blocking airport runway were constructed by SEA method.Considering the characteristics of the attack-defense system of missile,the calculation method of the distribution density of the blocking degree was given,and the calculation accuracy of the model was verified.The accuracy can meet the actual combat requirements.The operation characteristics of the submunition blocking airport runway by the segmented cutting was analyzed,and the idea of cutting the runway by the power ring of the explosive missiles was applied,and the favorable missile-landing-zone was determined by judging the geometric relationship between the landing site of the mothers of the submunition and the cut runway.On this basis,an analytical model of runway failure probability was established to describe the degree of blockade.In order to build the blocking time calculation model reflecting the confrontation process of airport runway blockade and anti-blockade,the blocking time was divided into four parts namely runway damage judgment time,runway repair plan time,explosive ordnance disposal time and crater repair time.The calculation models were constructed for explosive ordnance disposal time and crater repair time,and the analytical model of blocking time performance measurement was completed.The probability density function of the blocking-time performance measurement was statistically inferred.The study lays the foundation for the analysis on subsequent operational effectiveness of conventional missile blocking airport runway by SEA method.

关 键 词：导弹 效能分析 系统效能分析方法 封锁把握程度 封锁时间 解析模型 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学] TJ012.4[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]