高空风场条件风速概率分布与正态分布差异分析  

Analysis of the difference between probability distribution of conditional aloft wind speed and normal distribution

作　　者：王乐[1] 常汉江 蔡毅鹏 WANG Le;CHANG Hanjiang;CAI Yipeng(China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2023年第2期172-178,共7页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11902363)。

摘　　要：在飞行器多学科优化设计中,高空风场是有重要影响的不确定性因素,需要准确获取其统计特性。高空风场条件风速的概率分布是特定的,为了便于将高空风场概率模型用于不确定性设计,减少计算量,提出了高空风场条件风速概率分布与正态分布差异的分析方法,给出了将高空风场条件风速概率分布简化为正态分布的适用条件。数值仿真结果表明:在纬度为24.3°N~42.2°N范围内,不同地区高空风场条件风速概率密度与正态分布概率密度的差异在海拔2~30 km范围内呈喇叭形分布,在海拔15 km附近,高空风场条件风速概率密度与正态分布概率密度最接近,高空风场条件风速的概率分布可近似假设为正态分布。综合以上工作,给出了在飞行器不确定性设计中考虑条件风速不确定性时,生成随机样本方法的选择建议。As an important uncertainty factor in multidisciplinary optimization design of aerocraft,the statistical characteristics of aloft wind should be acquired accurately.The probability distribution of conditional aloft wind speed is unique,in order to facilitate the use of probability model of aloft wind for uncertainty design and reduce the amount of calculation,an analysis method of difference between probability distribution of conditional aloft wind speed and normal distribution was proposed,and the applicable condition for simplifying the distribution of probability distribution of conditional aloft wind speed to normal distribution was given.Numerical simulation results show that within latitude range of 24.3°N~42.2°N,the difference between condition aloft wind speed probability density and normal distribution probability density in different regions is trumpet-shaped in the range of 2~30 km above sea level,and the conditional aloft wind speed probability density is closest to that of normal distribution nearby the altitude of 15 km,which can be approximately assumed to be normally distributed.Based on the above work,suggestions were given for selecting the method of generating random samples when considering the uncertainty of the conditional aloft wind speed in the uncertainty design of aerocraft.

关 键 词：风矢量 不确定性 概率密度 正态分布 

分 类 号：V11[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]