我国货币政策传递中介与最终效果研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Research on Intermediaries of China’s Monetary Policies and Final Effects——Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model

作　　者：张政 ZHANG Zheng(School of Finance and Trade,Liaoning University Shenyang,Liaoning 110000)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院,辽宁沈阳110000

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第6期108-110,共3页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：近年来,我国为促进国民经济平稳健康发展,国务院多次强调实施稳健的货币政策。稳健的货币政策实施效果依赖于货币政策的有效性,为深入研究当前我国货币政策的有效性,文章基于利率传导机制和汇率传导机制,采用2006年1月至2022年4月货币供应量、利率、汇率等数据建立VAR模型,对我国货币政策有效性进行了实证分析。本文通过对传递中介和最终效果的回归,得出以下结论:我国货币供应量与利率关系不显著、货币供应量对资本市场影响不显著、货币供应量与汇率及制造业和净出口关系较为密切,因此我国应接近于浮动汇率制下资本自由流动的小国开放经济模型。In recent years,the State Council has repeatedly emphasized the implementation of prudent monetary policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the national economy.The effect of implementing prudent monetary policies depends on the effectiveness of the monetary policies.To study the effectiveness of the current monetary policies in China in depth,the article establishes a VAR model based on the interest rate transmission and exchange rate transmission mechanisms,and uses the data of money supply,interest rate and exchange rate from January 2006 to April 2022 to conduct an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policies in China.In this article,through the regressions of transmission intermediaries and final effects,the following conclusions are drawn:the relationship between money supply and interest rate and the impact of money supply on the capital markets are not signifi cant,and the relationship between money supply and exchange rate and manufacturing and net exports is closer,so that China should be close to the open economy models of small countries with the free flow of capital under floating exchange rate systems.

关 键 词：货币政策 利率传导 汇率传导 三元悖论 资本市场 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]