中国就业“去工业化”成因测度分析  

Measurement and Analysis on the Causes of Employment"Deindustrialization"in China

作　　者：董雪兵[1,2] 潘登 李霁霞 朱慧[4] Dong Xue-bing;Pan Deng;Li Ji-xia;Zhu Hui

机构地区：[1]浙江大学区域协调发展研究中心 [2]浙江大学中国西部发展研究院 [3]浙江大学经济学院 [4]浙江工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2023年第3期24-35,共12页Economist

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目“开放经济框架下知识产权保护的技能工资差距效应研究”(LY18G030010)。

摘　　要：文章结合投入产出模型和结构分解法,定量分析了2013—2018年中国制造业就业总量和就业份额同时下降的成因。研究发现:劳动生产率效应主导了2013—2018年中国制造业就业总量的下滑;劳动生产率效应、产业结构效应和需求总量规模效应共同促成了中国2013—2018年制造业就业份额的下降,其中劳动生产率效应占主导作用。研究显示,增加值率效应和劳动生产率效应主导减少了中国劳动密集型行业和技术密集型行业就业总量,劳动生产率效应主导减少了中国资本密集型行业就业总量。相比其他国家,增加值率效应对中国制造业就业份额提升作用较弱。文章为定量研究就业“去工业化”提供切入视角与研究框架。This paper investigates the causes of the decline in the manufacturing employment quantity and manufacturing employment share in China from 2013 to 2018 by combining the input-output model and the structural decomposition analysis method.We find that the labor productivity effect dominated the decline manufacturing employment quantity in China from 2013 to 2018;The labor productivity effect,the industrial structure effect and the demand scale effect jointly contributed to the decline of the manufacturing employment share in China from 2013 to 2018,of which the labor productivity effect played a dominant role.Further research finds that it is the value-added rate effect and the labor productivity effect that led to reduce the employ⁃ment quantity of labor-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries.It is the labor productivity effect that led to re⁃duce the employment quantity of capital-intensive industries.Compared with other countries,the value-added rate effect on pro⁃moting manufacturing employment share of China was weaker.This paper provides a new perspective and research framework for quantitative measurement on the causes of employment"deindustrialization".

关 键 词：就业“去工业化” 投入产出模型 结构分解 劳动生产率效应 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]