血液供应链绩效演进与评价研究:基于ABM+SD耦合建模与仿真  

Performance Evolutionand Evaluation for Blood Supply Chain:A Coupled ABM+SD Model

作　　者：周愉峰[1] 张熙培 李志[1] ZHOU Yu-feng;ZHANG Xi-pei;LI Zhi(School of Management Science and Engineering,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《供应链管理》2023年第3期18-35,共18页SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

基　　金：重庆市教委人文社科重点项目“重大疫情下考虑库龄与交叉配型的成分血供应链保障绩效演进机制及混合仿真方法研究”(22SKGH186)教育部人文社会科学研究项目“不确定环境下成分血供应链保障绩效的动态演进机制、模型与政策研究”(21YJCZH249);重庆市自科基金项目“不确定环境下考虑库龄与交叉配型的成分血生产-库存决策动态优化”(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0527);重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目“兼具可靠性与鲁棒性的血液战略储备决策优化模型与算法研究”(cstc2021ycjh-bgzxm0136)。

摘　　要：提高血液供应链绩效水平,完善血液保障体系,对于缓解我国的区域性/季节性血荒具有重要价值。为此,从复杂自适应角度出发,以血小板为研究对象,考虑宏观环境调控会影响献血者人数进而影响供应链绩效,提出以血液中心Agent为核心,基于库龄信息的ABM+SD耦合的四级血液供应链绩效演进与评价模型,并对其进行现实性检验与敏感性分析。研究表明:①血液中心Agent与医院Agent均存在自适应调整过程。②提高血液紧缺事件影响力,提升初始献血者人数,均能降低血液中心Agent的短缺率,但也会同时提高过期率。初始献血者人数的增多对于降低短缺率、提高过期率的作用并不明显。而当事件影响力提升至一定程度后,短缺率下降速率逐步放缓,过期率的提高速率逐步加快。③采用血型替代策略可有效降低医院Agent的短缺率与过期率。④提高最大库存水平、缩短血小板保质期均能降低医院Agent的短缺率,并提高过期率。但就整个仿真周期而言,缩短保质期对降低短缺率的作用并不显著。文章研究成果有助于重要节点在血液紧缺背景下更高效地进行供应链决策与控制,提升绩效水平;对破解血液紧缺困境具有一定的指导意义。The contradiction between blood supply and demand has become increasingly prominent,and regional/seasonal blood shortages occur frequently.It is of great practical significance to improve the performance level of the blood supply chain and the blood security system.Therefore,from the perspective of a complex adaptive system,taking platelets as the research object,considering that macro-environmental regulation will affect the number of blood donors,which in turn affects the performance of the supply chain,we propose a four-level blood supply chain coupled ABM and SD models that takes the blood center Agent as the core and considers the storage age,then carry on the reality test and sensitivity analysis to it.The research shows that:①There is an adaptive adjustment process between the blood center Agent and the hospital Agent.②The shortage rate of the blood center Agent can be reduced while the expiration rate can be increased by improving the influence of blood shortage events and increasing the number of initial blood donors.The increase in the number of initial blood donors has little effect on reducing the shortage rate and increasing the expiration rate.In addition,the rate of decrease in the shortage rate gradually slowed down,and the rate of increase in the expiration rate gradually accelerated when the influence of the event increased to a certain level.③Blood group substitution strategy can effectively reduce the shortage rate and expiration rate of hospital agents.④The shortage rate of the hospital Agent can be reduced while the expiration rate can be increased by increasing the maximum inventory level and shortening the shelf life of platelets.But as far as the entire simulation cycle is concerned,shortening the shelf life does not have a significant effect on reducing the shortage rate.The research results will help important nodes to make more efficient supply chain decision-making and control under the background of blood shortage,and improve the performance level;it has certain guiding signi

关 键 词：血液紧缺 血液供应链 复杂自适应系统 耦合模型 库龄 绩效仿真 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学] F252.8