住房保障、财政支出与城乡人口迁移  

Housing security,fiscal expenditures and rural-urban population migration

作　　者：董昕[1,2,3] DONG Xin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所 [2]中国社会科学院城市群研究室 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2023年第1期60-68,共9页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71704185)--“农业转移人口的住房多点配置对其持久性迁移的影响:机制与测度”。

摘　　要：首先从理论上分析住房保障影响人口迁移的内在机理,然后利用2010—2020年省级面板数据和2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)大样本数据,从地区层面和个体层面实证分析住房保障财政支出、不同类型保障性住房对城乡人口迁移的影响,并对比分析群体差异和城市差异。研究发现:住房保障财政支出的增加有利于乡—城人口的迁移;住房保障对流动人口在流入城镇定居意愿的正向影响显著;购置型保障房的影响比租赁型保障房更显著,租赁型保障房对城—城迁移人口的定居意愿影响不显著;只有在房价收入比超过合理标准的城市,租赁型保障房对流动人口定居意愿的影响才显著。因此,需要对住房保障支出的重点地域、保障方式等加以审慎选择。Firstly, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of housing subsidy affecting population migration from the theoretical level. Secondly, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of housing subsidy financial expenditure and different types of affordable housing on population migration from the regional level and the individual level by using the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 and the large sample data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS), and then compares the differences between different groups and different cities. The study finds that the increase of housing subsidy expenditure is beneficial to the migration of rural-urban population;housing subsidy has a significant positive impact on the floating population’s willingness to settle in the cities;the influence of purchase type affordable housing is more significant than that of rental type affordable housing, and the influence of rental type affordable housing on the settlement intention of urban-urban migrants is not significant;only in the cities where the ratio of house price to income exceeds the reasonable standard, the influence of rental housing on the migrants’ settlement intention is significant. Combined with the research conclusion and national conditions, it is suggested that housing subsidy should continue to be an important part of public financial expenditure, but the key areas and subsidy methods of housing subsidy expenditure should be carefully selected.

关 键 词：住房保障 财政支出 人口迁移 对比分析 

分 类 号：D669.3[政治法律—政治学] F299.23[政治法律—中外政治制度]