基于系统动力学的公立医院运营现金流量预测研究  

System dynamics model for operating cash flow forecast of public hospitals

作　　者：张玲 易聆钰 ZHANG Ling;YI Ling-yu(West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital of Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学,四川成都610064

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第5期895-901,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 通过建立公立医院运营现金流量预测模型对公立医院发展进行实践指导,防范公立医院运营风险。方法基于医院管理实践,运用系统动力学方法建立公立医院运营现金流量预测模型,综合分析医疗服务量、应收及应付款项账期等关键要素对运营现金流量的影响。结果 以成都市某样本医院为例,当服务人次整体下降20%或应收款项账期延期2个月时,年度运营现金存量值低于0,无法支撑医院正常运营发展。结论 通过该模型可以较为准确地预测出医院运营现金结存量,直观判断经济运行的情况。建议通过建立应收款催收机制,积极争取管理部门相应政策,精细化成本管理等措施以保持稳定的运营现金流量。Objective To guide the development of public hospitals and prevent the operational risks of public hospitals by establishing the cash flow forecast model of public hospitals.Methods Based on the practice of hospital management,the forecasting model of operating cash flow of public hospitals was established by using the system dynamics method,and the influence of key factors such as medical service volume,receivables,and payables on operating cash flow was comprehensively analyzed.Results Taking a sample hospital in Chengdu as an example,when the number of service visits decreased by 20%or the account period of accounts receivable was delayed by 60 days,the annual operating cash flow was lower than zero,which could not support the normal operation and development of the hospital.Conclusion Through this model,the cash balance of hospital operation can be accurately predicted,and the economic operation can be directly judged.It is suggested to establish a receivables collection mechanism,actively strive for the corresponding policies support of management departments,and refine cost management,to maintain stable operating cash flow.

关 键 词：公立医院 系统动力学 现金流量 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]