湖南省强制免疫退出后小反刍兽疫发生风险评估  

Risk Assessment on the Occurrence of PPR after Withdrawal of Compulsory Vaccination in Hunan Province

作　　者：黄建龙[1] 范仲鑫[1] 张朝阳[1] 林源[1] 邓国强[1] 郭永祥[1] 刘道新[1] Huang Jianlong;Fan Zhongxin;Zhang Chaoyang;Lin Yuan;Deng Guoqiang;Guo Yongxiang;Liu Daoxin(Hunan Provincial Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center,Changsha,Hunan 410014,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省动物疫病预防控制中心,湖南长沙410014

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2023年第4期5-10,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

摘　　要：为进一步推进湖南省小反刍兽疫(PPR)消灭工作,通过数据收集、抽样监测、问卷调查等方式,了解近年来全省PPR疫情情况,山羊养殖、调运、监测情况以及养殖户对PPR的知晓率等,并从传入评估、暴露评估、后果评估3个方面,对全省强制免疫退出后的PPR发生风险进行评估。调查结果显示:湖南省调入活羊90%以上用于屠宰,主要调入地区PPR免疫抗体水平较高;湖南省养殖场户对PPR的知晓率较高,发生疫情后及时报告率达92.5%,退出强制免疫后自主免疫意愿率为62.3%。专项监测结果显示:全省PPR个体免疫合格率为66.36%,群体合格率为61.35%;病原个体阳性率为0.01%,群体阳性率为0.07%。风险评估认为,湖南省在退出PPR强制免疫后,PPR传入风险和暴露风险等级分别为中和低,后果评估等级为很低。因此,湖南省退出强制免疫后,发生PPR的风险很低,后果不严重,已具备全省实施PPR强制免疫退出政策的基础和条件。建议退出后,继续通过强化产业升级、监测排查、流通监管、宣传培训、应急管理等措施,尽快实现全省消灭PPR的目标。In order to further eradicate peste des petits ruminants(PPR)in Hunan Province,the outbreak of PPR,goat production,transportation and monitoring as well as farmers'awareness for PPR across the province in recent years were investigated by means of data collection,sampling monitoring and questionnaire investigation,then the risk of occurrence of PPR after withdrawal of compulsory vaccination was evaluated according to the procedures of entry evaluation,exposure evaluation and consequence evaluation.It was investigated that more than 90%introduced live goats were for slaughtering,and high level of PPR immune antibodies was detected in the destination regions;and farmers'awareness rate of PPR was high,the timely reporting rate after any outbreak was up to 92.5%,and the willingness rate of voluntary vaccination after the withdrawal was 62.3%.It was showed that,according to the specific monitoring,the individual qualification rate of PPR across the province was 66.36%and the population one was 61.35%;for pathogen detection,the individual positive rate was 0.01%,and the population one was 0.07%.According to the results of risk evaluation,after the withdrawal,the levels of entry risk and exposure risk were respectively medium and low,and that of consequence evaluation was very low.Therefore,the risk of occurrence of PPR was very low and the consequences were not serious after the withdrawal,indicating that the basis and conditions for implementing the withdrawal policy across the province were ready.It was recommended,after the withdrawal,to continue to achieve the goal of eliminating PPR across the province as soon as possible through strengthening industrial upgrading,monitoring and troubleshooting,movement supervision,publicity and training,emergency management and other measures.

关 键 词：小反刍兽疫 风险评估 强制免疫退出 监测 调运监管 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]