需求冲击、投资行为选择与制造业升级——兼论“双循环”新格局下的制造强国建设  

Demand Shocks,Investment Decision and Manufacturing Upgrading:On Raising China’s Manufacturing Power under the“Dual Circulation”Development Pattern

作　　者：董文宇 孙巍[2] DONG Wenyu;SUN Wei(International Business School,Dalian Minzu University,Dalian 116600,China;Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]大连民族大学国际商学院,辽宁大连116600 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第2期50-59,共10页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L22CJY008)。

摘　　要：“双循环”新发展格局下,中国制造业面临着错综复杂的国内外需求变化形势。为研究如何在需求频繁转换时期顺利实现中国制造业转型升级,推动制造强国建设,首先结合机器换人模型,分析需求冲击下投资影响制造业升级的理论机制;进一步基于A股上市公司数据,构建投资影响资本劳动比和生产率的双方程模型,检验不同需求冲击下企业投资对制造业升级的作用效应。研究发现:总体上,企业投资对制造业升级呈现出显著的积极影响;当需求冲击逐渐加强时,投资的积极影响逐渐减弱,负向需求冲击更有益于刺激制造业转型升级投资;区分所有制属性后,相同需求冲击下投资更易促使国有企业提升资本劳动比,而对非国有企业生产率提升的促进作用更为明显。据此提出需求下探时期和需求急剧扩张时期企业实现技术创新和转型升级的政策建议,从而在极端需求变化情况下实现精准施策。China’s manufacturing industry is facing multiplex changes both in domestic and foreign demand under the new pattern of“Dual Circulation”.In order to study how to successfully realize the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry and to raise the country’s manufacturing power during the period of rapid demand transformation,we analyzed the theoretical mechanism of investment’s impact on manufacturing upgrading under demand shocks based on the machine-substitution model,and then constructed a two-equation model that investment affects the proportion of capital and labor and productivity to test the mechanism of corporate investment on manufacturing upgrading under different demand shocks by using a big data of listed companies.Findings indicate that corporate investment has a significant role in promoting manufacturing upgrades.When the demand shocks gradually strengthen,the promotion effect of investment on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry gradually weakens,and the negative demand shocks are more conducive to stimulating the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.When distinguishing ownership,we found that investment is more likely to promote state-owned enterprises to increase the capital-labor ratio,while the promotion of productivity improvement of non-state-owned enterprises is more obvious under same demand shocks.Therefore,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for enterprises to realize technological innovation,transformation and upgrading during the period of demand dip and expansion so as to realize precise policies under the extreme demand changes.

关 键 词：需求冲击 投资行为选择 技术创新 制造业升级 “双循环” 资本劳动比 生产率 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]