气候智慧型农业项目能否抑制农业碳排放--来自安徽气候智慧型主要粮食作物生产项目的经验证据  

Can Climate-Smart Agriculture Project reduce agricultural carbon emission:experience evidence from Climate-Smart Staple Crop Production Project in Anhui,China

作　　者：魏新彦 刘颖[3] 张俊飚[1,2] WEI Xinyan;LIU Ying;ZHANG Junbiao(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Economics and Management,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [3]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2023年第3期676-687,共12页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19AZD020)。

摘　　要：基于安徽省2011—2019年23个县的面板数据,在熊彼特创新理论和波特创新驱动理论的指导下,采用合成控制法评估气候智慧型主要粮食作物生产项目对怀远县农业碳排放的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:气候智慧型主要粮食作物生产项目对农业碳排放的影响效应具有一定的时滞性,在实施当年并未对怀远县人均农业碳排放量产生抑制作用,但有效抑制了2016—2019年怀远县的人均农业碳排放量。经统计,2015—2019年,怀远县的人均农业碳排放量年均下降1.9776 kg,年均降幅为1.43%。中介检验结果表明,项目运用现代技术和理念推动了农业发展模式的创新,通过创新驱动产生结构效应和技术效应,促进怀远县农业结构转型升级和生物化学型技术进步,进而抑制了农业碳排放。Based on the panel data of 23 counties in Anhui,China during 2011-2019,under the guidance of Joseph Schumpeter s innovation theory and Baud s innovation-driven theory,the synthetic control method was adopted to evaluate the effects of the Climate-Smart Staple Crop Production Project on agricultural carbon emissions in Huaiyuan County and to explore the corresponding action mechanism.It was shown that the Climate-Smart Staple Crop Production Project had certain time lag effect on agricultural carbon emission,as it did not inhibit the per capita agricultural carbon emissions in Huaiyuan County in the initial stage,but it effectively suppressed per capita agricultural carbon emissions in Huaiyuan County from 2016 to 2019.It was calculated that the average annual decline of per capita agricultural carbon emissions was 1.9776 kg(or 1.43%)in Huaiyuan County during 2015-2019.The intermediary test results showed that the project had promoted the innovation of agricultural development pattern by using modern technology and ideas,and had produced structural and technological effects through innovation,by promoting the structural transformation and upgrading of agriculture in Huaiyuan County and the development of biochemical technologies.Thus,the agricultural carbon emissions in Huaiyuan County has been curbed.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 气候智慧型农业 合成控制法 怀远县 创新理论 创新驱动理论 

分 类 号：F303.4[经济管理—产业经济] S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]