气候变化情景下流域水环境承载力评估方法研究  

Evaluation Method of Watershed Water Environment Carrying Capacity under Climate Change Scenarios

作　　者：张扬[1,2] 付正辉 张雅然 郭怀成 姜霞[1] 王书航[1] ZHANG Yang;FU Zhenghui;ZHANG Yaran;GUO Huaicheng;JIANG Xia;WANG Shuhang(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science,Beijing 100012;College of Environment Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871;CCCC(Tianjin)Eco-Environmental Protection Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Tianjin 300461)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [3]中交(天津)生态环保设计研究院有限公司,天津300461

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期242-250,共9页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52209039)资助。

摘　　要：以青海省湟水流域为研究案例,考虑气候变化与流域水文循环的密切联系以及气候变化对水环境系统的剧烈影响,构建气候变化影响下的流域水环境承载力评估方法体系。该体系从系统性和整体性的角度进行时间与空间尺度上的匹配,从而精确地评估气候变化对流域尺度水文循环的影响,开展水环境承载力计算,最终建立气候变化影响下的流域水环境承载力动态变化评估。研究结果表明,气候变暖将导致湟水流域水环境承载力下降,但随着时间推移,未来气候变化情景下的水环境承载力总体上呈现改善的趋势。The Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province was selected as the research case.Considering the close relationship between climate change and hydrological cycle of the basin and the severe impact on the water environment system,the evaluation method system of water environment carrying capacity of the basin under the impact of climate change was constructed.The matching of time and space scales was carried out from the perspective of systematicness and integrity,so as to accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the basin scale and carry out the calculation of water environment carrying capacity.Finally,the assessment and analysis of the dynamic change of the basin water environmental carrying capacity under the influence of climate change was established.The research results show that climate warming would lead to a decline in the water environmental carrying capacity of the Huangshui River Basin,but with the passage of time,the water environmental carrying capacity under the future climate change scenario would generally improve.

关 键 词：水环境 气候变化 水资源 水环境承载力 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]