台风路径北移对黄渤海风暴潮增水影响研究  

The influence of northward movement of Typhoon In-Fa track on storm surge in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea

作　　者：张冰洁 陶爱峰[1,2] 沈红艳[1,2] 王京富 纪橞颖 ZHANG Bing-jie;TAO Ai-feng;SHEN Hong-yan;WANG Jing-fu;JI Hui-ying(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210024,China;College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210024,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210024 [2]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2023年第3期1-7,共7页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFE0104500);自然科学基金面上项目(52271271);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022025)。

摘　　要：热带气旋生命史最大强度(LMI)的年平均纬度在全球主要的热带气旋盆地中向极地移动,正在改变有关海域风暴潮增水的统计结论,对港区潮位设防标准的确定构成影响,西北太平洋(WNP)尤其明显。应用二维水动力模型MIKE21以及Holland台风模型建立天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型,模拟2106号“烟花”台风期间的风暴潮,并设置3个情景,将“烟花”台风的路径向北平移,分析其对黄渤海海域风暴潮增水的影响。初步得出台风路径北移3°,渤海海域风暴潮整体增水幅度达17%,连云港至启东角沿岸30 m水深范围内风暴潮增水幅度达32%等结论,以资沿岸防灾减灾及确定港区潮位设防标准时参考。The annual mean latitude of the life history maximum intensity(LMI)of tropical cyclones has shifted poleward in the major tropical cyclone basins around the globe,particularly in the Northwest Pacific(WNP),which is changing the statistical conclusions about storm surge in the ocean and affecting the determination of the tidal level criteria for fortification of the port area.In this paper,the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model MIKE21 and the Holland typhoon model are applied to develop a coupled astronomical tide-storm surge model to simulate the storm surge during Typhoon In-Fa.Three scenarios are set up to move the track of Typhoon In-Fa northward and analyze its impact on the storm surge in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.It is preliminarily concluded that,when the typhoon track moves northward by 3°,the overall increase of storm surge height in the Bohai Sea reaches 17%and the storm surge along the coast from Lianyungang to Qidongjiao within a water depth of 30 m increases by 32%,etc.It can be used as a reference for coastal disaster prevention and mitigation and the determination of the tide level fortification standard in port areas.

关 键 词：热带气旋路径北移 风暴潮增水 港区设防潮位 2106号台风“烟花” 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] U652[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]