区域水资源供需平衡指数分析方法——以引沁灌区为例  

Variation in Balance Between Water Supply and Water Demand in Yinqin Irrigation District

作　　者：赵维岭 纪义虎 左其亭[2,3] 符运友 ZHAO Weiling;JI Yihu;ZUO Qiting;FU Yunyou(Henan Yubei Water Conservancy Engineering Administration Bureau,Xinxiang 453002,China;School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan International Joint Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Environmental Protection,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省豫北水利工程管理局,河南新乡453002 [2]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,郑州450001 [3]河南省水循环模拟与水环境保护国际联合实验室,郑州450001

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2023年第3期128-135,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3200201);河南省重大公益性项目(2020-36);国家自然科学基金项目(52279027)。

摘　　要：【目的】进行区域水资源供需平衡分析。【方法】通过分析引沁灌区水资源供需平衡问题,采用定额法结合相关发展规划预测引沁灌区2018年及2025年不同情景下的供需水量,提出区域水资源供需平衡指数(RWRI),将区域水资源供需情况划分为水资源盈余、水资源平衡、水资源短缺3种类型,并进一步细化为9种状况,对每种状况进行分析说明,以此评价引沁灌区水资源供需平衡状况。【结果】在保证率P=50%的条件下,2018年及2025年引沁灌区RWRI分别为1.06和0.92,均达到水资源平衡状态,能够维持正常的生产生活;在保证率P=75%和P=90%的条件下,2018年引沁灌区RWRI分别为1.71和2.56,分别属于高度缺水与极度缺水状况,2025年情况有所好转,RWRI分别为1.29和1.45,处于轻度缺水及高度缺水状态。【结论】未来引沁灌区水资源供需情况将优于现状,但仍然无法满足枯水年各部门的用水需求。【Objective】Understanding water demand and water availability in a region is fundamental to securing its sustainable development.Taking Yinqin irrigation district as an example,this paper analyzes the balance between water supply and water demand in attempts to help improve regional water resources management.【Objective】The quota method and the related development planning forecast were first used to evaluate the variation in water supply and demand from 2018 to 2025 under different conditions.We then introduced a supply-demand water balance index(RWRI)and classified the balance into three types:water surplus,in balance,and water shortage.The RWRI was further divided into nine conditions.All these were used to evaluate the balance between water supply and demand in the district under different conditions.【Result】When the required water guarantee is 50%,RWRI in the district in 2018 and 2025 is 1.06 and 0.92,respectively,indicating that water supply and demand are in balance and water can support normal activities.When the required guarantee is increased to 75%and 90%,however,RWRI in the district is 1.71 and 2.56,representing high and extreme water shortage,respectively.These will be improved in 2025,with the associated RWRI being 1.29(75%guarantee rate)and 1.45(90%guarantee rate),indicating mild and high water shortage,respectively.【Conclusion】Water supply and demand in Yinqin irrigation area is expected to improve in the future,though it is unlikely to meet the demand of all sectors for water,especially in dry years.

关 键 词：供需水平衡 水资源短缺 引沁灌区 定额法 区域水资源供需平衡指数(RWRI) 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]