体育发展对健康指数的加权模型评估  

Weighted Model Assessment of the Influence of Sports Development on Health Index

作　　者：宋彦李青 张天峰[1] SONGYAN Liqing;ZHANG Tianfeng(School of Physical Education,Nanjing University of Technology,NanJing 211816,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学体育学院,江苏南京211816

出　　处：《玉溪师范学院学报》2022年第6期107-114,共8页Journal of Yuxi Normal University

基　　金：江苏省高校教育信息化研究课题(2021JSETKT019);江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题(22SYC-110);江苏省教育科学“十四五”规划课题一般项目(T-c/2021/62)。

摘　　要：选取“体育发展”和“健康中国”相关指标,运用ArcGis10.2软件进行空间自相关和地理回归加权分析.显示:健康中国指数的全局Moran’sI指数呈现良好的空间结构性,在空间上存在一定的“高-高”集聚现象.局部自相关显示华东地区、华中地区、华北地区以及东北地区呈明显的空间正相关,华南地区、西南地区呈明显的空间负相关,其余行政区则不存在相关性.健康中国指数GWR模型拟合效果优于OLS回归模型,影响健康中国指数的因素有室内场地数量、全天开放时间、技术等级运动员数量.可见体育事业的发展对健康中国指数有显著影响,GWR模型提高了对健康中国指数的解释力,但影响健康中国指数的因素较为复杂,有待后续更加深入研究.Since most of the traditional linear regression models ignore the“spatial non-stationarity”,the geographically weighted regression model(GWR)is introduced to evaluate the impact of sports development on the healthy China index,explore the spatial variation in their correlation and find out the reasons.Then,the GWR model is tested to verify whether it is superior to OLS model in predicting precision and autocorrelation of space process.In the study,the indices of“sports development”and“Healthy China”are selected for space autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression analysis by using ArcGis10.2software.The results are shown as follows.(1)The global Moran’s I index of the Healthy China Index shows a good spatial structure and a"high-high"clustering phenomenon in space to certain extent.(2)The local autocorrelation analysis indicates an obvious positive spatial correlation in East China,Central China,North China and Northeast China,an obvious negative spatial correlation in South China and Southwest China and no correlation in other administrative regions.(3)The GWR model of Healthy China index has better fitting effect than OLS regression model.The factors influencing the Healthy China index include the number of indoor venues,the opening hours throughout the whole day and the number of skilled athletes.It is concluded that the development of sports has a significant impact on the Healthy China Index and although the GWR model improves the explanatory power of Healthy China index,further studies are still needed because the factors that affect the comprehensive index of Chinese national physique are very complicated.

关 键 词：健康中国 体育 地理回归加权 空间自相关 

分 类 号：G642.0[文化科学—高等教育学]