新疆水资源与农业种植系统耦合协调及时空差异研究——以粮食和棉花种植系统为例  

Coupling coordination and spatiotemporal differences between water resources and agriculture cropping system in Xinjiang:A case of grain and cotton cropping systems

作　　者：张宁[1] 汪子晨 杨肖 陈彤[2] 邢飞 ZHANG Ning;WANG Zichen;YANG Xiao;CHEN Tong;XING Fei(School of Management,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China;Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]新疆农业科学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2023年第3期349-359,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(20BGL188);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71933005);浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目(2023GH003)资助。

摘　　要：为研究新疆水资源状况与农业种植发展的耦合协调性及时空差异性,以新疆粮食和棉花种植系统为例并基于2005—2019年14个地州的水资源、农业种植相关数据,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析对水资源系统、农业种植系统的综合发展指数及水资源-农业种植复合系统(简称“复合系统”)的耦合协调度与时空演化规律进行测算研究。结果表明:(1)新疆复合系统综合发展指数在空间上表现出“中轴高,两翼低”的特征,其中水资源系统整体水平较高,农业种植系统增长趋势更快。(2)新疆复合系统耦合协调水平总体呈现出“北高南低,但差距逐渐缩小”的发展趋势,并且因区域差异致使农业种植系统逐渐成为阻碍复合系统耦合协调发展的短板。(3)新疆复合系统的耦合协调度存在显著的空间集聚特征,但其正相关性则表现出由强减弱的变化态势。研究结果对新疆水资源可持续利用与农业种植系统产业的良性协调发展具有理论实践意义。This study takes the grain and cotton cropping systems as an example to measure the development level of the water resource and agricultural cropping systems in Xinjiang,China to study its water resource endowment and agriculture industry development,respectively.Additionally,the two systems are combined to further analyze the coupling coordination and spatiotemporal differences of the water resources-agriculture cropping composite system(abbreviated composite system)in Xinjiang.Therefore,data related to water resources and agriculture cropping of 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2019 were selected to measure the comprehensive development index of water resources,agriculture cropping,and composite systems using the entropy method.On the basis of the comprehensive development index of the composite system,this study further explores the coupling coordination trend and spatiotemporal evolution law of the composite system using the coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatial data analysis,respectively.The following results are presented.(1)The comprehensive development index of the composite system in Xinjiang is spatially characterized by“high in the middle and low on both sides”.Among them,the level of comprehensive development index of the water resources system is higher than that of the agriculture cropping system and the growth trend of the agricultural plantation system is fast.Comparing the results of the composite development index of water resources and agriculture cropping systems from 2005 to 2019,this study found that the former has been developing at a higher level than the latter during the study period.However,the latter showed a faster growth trend than the former,resulting in a gradual reduction in the gap between the two systems.(2)The overall level of coupling coordination of composite systems in Xinjiang shows a development trend of“high in the north and low in the south,but the gap is gradually decreasing”.Additionally,the agriculture cropping system has gradually

关 键 词：水资源-农业种植复合系统 耦合协调度 探索性空间数据分析 时空差异 新疆 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济] F323.213