中欧班列开通如何影响产业集聚态势?——基于制造业与生产性服务业能否兼得的视角  

How Does China-Europe Railway Express Opening Affect Industrial Agglomeration Trend:Based on Perspective of Whether to Improve Both Manufacturing Industry and Productive Services

作　　者：李佳[1] 李娇娇 Li Jia;Li Jiaojiao(School of Economics,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China;School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学经济学院,山东济南250358 [2]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2023年第2期68-86,共19页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“金融支持山东深度融入‘一带一路’建设的优化路径研究”(21CJJJ31)。

摘　　要：基于2005—2019年中国284个地级市面板数据,以中欧班列开通作为准自然实验,运用多时点双重差分模型实证检验中欧班列开通对生产性服务业集聚与制造业集聚的影响及作用机制。研究发现:中欧班列开通引致“重服务、轻制造”的偏向性产业集聚倾向,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性检验显示:中欧班列开通的产业集聚效应在北方地区城市组别与政策支持力度较低城市中更为显著,且在生产性服务业集聚超过制造业集聚后,中欧班列开通不再显著抑制制造业集聚,并开始出现产业协同集聚的倾向。机制检验发现:中欧班列开通可通过对外开放、区域创新、金融发展等路径影响产业集聚。对中欧班列进入新发展阶段的进一步分析发现:运输成本优化、集结示范中心建设以及多式联运发展等助推班列高质量发展,强化中欧班列的产业集聚效应。文章为中欧班列开通经济潜能的研究提供了新的视角,为优化中欧班列运行模式提供了参考。Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019 and taking China-Europe railway express opening as a quasi-natural experiment,this study empirically tests the impact and action mechanism of China-Europe railway express opening on the agglomeration of productive services and the agglomeration of manufacturing industries by using the multi-time point double difference model.It is found that China-Europe railway express opening leads to a biased industrial agglomeration tendency of“emphasizing service and despising manufacturing”,which is still valid after a series of robustness tests.The heterogeneity test shows that the industrial agglomeration effect of China-Europe railway express opening is more significant in the northern region city group and the cities with lower policy support intensity,and that after productive services agglomeration exceeds manufacturing industry agglomeration,China-Europe railway express opening will no longer significantly inhibit the agglomeration of manufacturing industries with the trend of collaborative industrial agglomeration beginning to appear.The mechanism test shows that China-Europe railway express opening can affect industrial agglomeration through opening up,regional innovation,financial development and other paths.Further analysis of China-Europe railway express entering the new development phase shows that transportation cost optimization,agglomeration demonstration center construction and multi-modal transportation development promote the high-quality development of China-Europe railway express and strengthen the industrial agglomeration effect of China-Europe railway express.This study provides a new perspective for studying the economic potential of China-Europe railway express opening,and provides a reference for optimizing the operation mode of China-Europe railway express.

关 键 词：中欧班列开通 产业集聚 制造业 生产性服务业 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]