基于系统动力学模型的江西省水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Jiangxi Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：宋世强 冯倩 王萍根 唐郭豪 熊夏晖 计勇[1] SONG Shiqiang;FENG Qian;WANG Pinggen;TANG Guohao;XIONG Xiahui;JI Yong(School of Hydraulic&Ecological Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院水利与生态工程学院,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第3期74-83,共10页Pearl River

摘　　要：为研究江西省水资源承载力现状,缓解江西省用水压力,结合江西省水资源特点构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,以历史数据为支撑,构建水资源承载力系统动力学模型,并设计4种发展情境,通过模型仿真得到不同情境下的各指标参数变化,基于层次分析法确定指标权重,计算不同情境下的水资源承载力变化。结果表明:①在现状发展情境下,江西省的水资源承载力处于轻微超载状态;②高速发展情境下,江西省水资源承载力超载情况愈加严重;③在节水治污和综合发展情境下,水资源承载力均得到改善,后者的改善程度更高。综合发展情境是符合江西省可持续发展的最优发展情境。该研究可为江西省水资源管理规划提供参考与依据。To study the current situation of water resources carrying capacity and alleviate the water supply pressure in Jiangxi Province,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity,taking into account the characteristics of water resources in Jiangxi Province.Further,a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity was built with historical data,and four development scenarios were designed,under which the variations of various index parameters were obtained through model simulation.The weight of each index was determined by the analytic hierarchy process,and the change of water resources carrying capacity was calculated under each scenario.The following findings are obtained.①Under the current development scenario,the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province is in a state of slightly overloading.②Under the rapid development scenario,the overload of the water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province becomes more serious.③Under the water saving&pollution control and comprehensive development scenarios,the water resources carrying capacity tend to be both improved,and the improvement degree is higher under the latter scenario.The comprehensive development scenario is found to be the optimal development scenario which accords with the sustainable development of Jiangxi Province.This study can provide reference and an evaluation basis for water resources management planning in Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 系统动力学 模型仿真 层次分析法 江西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]