人口、房屋数据空间化及在2021年拜城M_(S)5.4地震中的应用  

SPATIALIZATION OF POPULATION AND HOUSING DATA AND ITS APPLICATION IN BAICHENG M_(S)5.4 EARTHQUAKE IN 2021

作　　者：赵江涛 李金香[1] 孙静[1] 黄帅堂 马建 张风帆 ZHAO Jiang-tao;LI Jin-xiang;SUN Jing;HUANG Shuai-tang;MA Jian;ZHANG Feng-fang(Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;Emergency Management Bureau of Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture,Yining 835099,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]伊犁哈萨克自治州应急管理局,新疆伊宁835099

出　　处：《内陆地震》2023年第1期60-71,共12页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：新疆地震科学基金资助课题(202106);中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室重点专项(2020EEEVL0203);新疆维吾尔自治区自然基金特培项目(2022D03031).

摘　　要：地震灾情快速评估依赖于震区准确的人口、房屋等设施的数量和空间分布,是震后地震应急救援、地震烈度评估的核心支撑。以阿克苏地区的居民点、POI数据为基础,采用核密度估算结合道路分布和房屋占地面积的方法,构建了人口密度权重模型,获得了研究区1 km×1 km的人口、房屋格网数据。结果显示,各乡镇实际人口数量与模拟人口数量线性拟合相关系数为0.909,线性拟合相对较好,表明人口空间化结果达到了较高精度。为了更好地验证上述方法和数据,以2021年拜城M_(S)5.4地震为例,叠加对比分析震区人口、房屋格网数据与地震评估区之间的定量关系。按照地震评估区进行了人口、房屋面积的模拟,该数据与实际现场数据之间误差较小,能够满足震后地震灾情快速评估的需求,可为灾害预评估及地震现场灾害快速评估等工作提供可靠依据和支撑,同时空间化的方法也为后续该方向的研究提出了一个新的思路。The rapid assessment of earthquake disaster depends on the accurate number and spatial distribution of population,houses and other facilities in the earthquake area,which is the core support of post-earthquake emergency rescue and earthquake intensity assessment.Based on the residential area and POI data in Aksu region,the population density weight model is constructed by u-sing the method of nuclear density estimation combined with the road distribution and the floor area of houses,and is obtained 1 km×1 km of population and housing grid data of the study area.The results show that the linear fitting correlation coefficient between the actual population and the simulated population in each township is 0.909,which is relatively good,indicating that the population spatial results have reached a high accuracy.In order to better verify the above methods and data,take the Baicheng M_(S)5.4 earthquake in 2021 as an example,and analyze the quantitative relationship between the earthquake area population,housing grid data and the seismic assessment area.The simulation of population and housing area has been carried out according to the earthquake assessment area.The error between the data and the actual field data is small,which can meet the needs of rapid post-earthquake disaster assessment,and provide reliable basis and support for disaster pre-assessment and rapid post-earthquake disaster assessment.At the same time,the spatial method also provides a new idea for the follow-up research in this direction.

关 键 词：居民点 POI数据 人口空间化 房屋空间化 2021年拜城M_(S)5.4地震 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]