永福镇台品樱花始花期预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of the Initial Flowering Period of Formosa Cherry in Yongfu Town

作　　者：陈思捷 陈洋麟 肖秀珠 江帆 Chen Si-jie(Zhangping Meteorological Bureau,Zhangping,Fujian 364400)

机构地区：[1]福建省漳平市气象局,福建漳平364400 [2]福建省龙岩市气象局,福建龙岩364000

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第2期4-6,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：利用1971—2020年ERA5 0.25×0.25再分析的地面气温、雨量、相对湿度等气象要素资料,开展基于积温预报方法、600度法则方法的检验修订,应用地面自动站点2012—2021年实测资料建立樱花始花期预报模型,对比分析3种樱花始花期的预测准确率。研究结果表明:(1)使用积温预报方法得出的预报指标为每年1月1日以后日平均气温≥0℃、活动积温达334℃·d即为开花日,600度法则方法以前一年12月25日为起始日,日最高气温累积达600℃·d即为开花日,使用2种指标进行历年回测,除去异常年份,始花期平均误差天数分别为3.2 d,通过方差分析得出600度法则效果较好;(2)将樱花花期与各个阶段气温、最高温度进行相关性分析,发现其与12月中旬平均气温呈负相关,采用逐步回归分析方法得到樱花始花期预测模型,进行历年回测,除去异常年份误差,始花期平均误差天数为2.3 d。In this paper,based on the accumulated temperature prediction method and the 600 degree rule method,the surface temperature,rainfall,relative humidity and other meteorological element data reanalyzed by ERA50.25×0.25 from 1971 to 2020 are used to carry out the inspection and revision,and the forecast model of cherry blossom initial flowering period is established by using the measured data of automatic ground stations from 2012 to 2021 to compare and analyze the prediction accuracy of three cherry blossom initial flowering periods.The research results show that:(1)The prediction index obtained by using the accumulated temperature prediction method is that the daily average temperature≥0℃after January 1 of each year,and the active accumulated temperature reaches 334℃·d,which is the flowering date.The 600 degree rule method uses December 25 of the previous year as the starting date,and the daily maximum temperature reaches 600℃·d,which is the flowering date.The two indexes are used for the back measurement over the years,and the average error days of the first flowering period are 3.2 days respectively,excluding the abnormal years,The effect of 600 degree rule through variance analysis is better.(2)The correlation analysis of the cherry blossom period with the air temperature and the highest temperature in each stage shows that it has a negative correlation with the average air temperature in the middle of December.The stepwise regression analysis method is used to obtain the prediction model of the cherry blossom initial flowering period and carry out the backtesting over the years.The average error days of the initial flowering period are 2.3 days after removing the abnormal year error.

关 键 词：樱花始花期 预报模型 600度法则 积温预报 日本樱花 

分 类 号：S685.99[农业科学—观赏园艺]