基于多层级人员流通的病毒传播模型  

Virus Transmission Model Based on Multi-level People Circulation

作　　者：李海冰 黄戈 房志明 黄中意 张俊[3] LI Haibing;HUANG Ge;FANG Zhiming;HUANG Zhongyi;ZHANG Jun(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science&Technology,Shanghai 200093,China.;不详)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]招商局邮轮研究院,上海201324 [3]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2023年第1期13-20,共8页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(52102414);上海市扬帆计划资助项目(21YF1431200);应急管理部消防救援局科技计划项目(2022XFLR30).

摘　　要：建立一种基于多层级人员流通的病毒传播模型,反映病毒在个体间的传播扩散趋势以及探究防控措施对病毒传播的影响。基于多层级场所建立人员活动场景,根据病毒特征引入病毒近距离传播函数,建立病毒传播模型。通过建立的基于多层级人员流通的病毒传播模型模拟了某上海高校在封闭环境下病毒在人员活动中的接触传播过程,并改进模型模拟了不同防控措施的场景,探讨了个体防护以及不同防控措施下的病毒传播趋势。通过对校园场景进行模拟,得到了病毒在校园内的传播趋势以及个体在活动中的接触分布,然后对病毒传播趋势以及个体接触分布制定了不同的防控措施。根据不同防控措施对病毒传播的影响提出了相关疫情防控意见。A virus transmission model based on multi-level people circulation was established to reflect the spread of the virus among individuals and to explore the impact of prevention and control measures on the spread of the virus.A person activity scenario is established based on a multi-level place,and a virus proximity spread function is introduced based on virus characteristics to establish a virus spread model.A multi-level person circulation-based virus transmission model was developed to simulate the contact transmission process of the virus in a closed environment at a Shanghai university in the context of person activities.The model was also improved to simulate scenarios with different prevention and control measures,and to explore individual protection as well as virus transmission trends under different prevention and control measures.By simulating the campus scenario,the spread trend of the virus in the campus and the contact distribution of individuals in activities are obtained.Different prevention and control measures were then developed for the trend of virus transmission and the distribution of individual contacts.According to the effect of different prevention and control measures on the spread of the virus,relevant opinions on epidemic prevention and control are put forward.

关 键 词：病毒传播模型 人员流通 个体接触 病毒感染率 防控措施 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]