基于ARM和ISM的危化品罐车事故致因分析  

Analysis of Causation Factors of Hazardous Chemicals Tanker Accident Based on ARM and ISM

作　　者：严晨 黄亮 王卓[2,3] 黄楚原 刘晅亚 YAN Chen;HUANG Liang;WANG Zhuo;HUANG Chuyuan;LIU Xuanya(Wuhan Ledao Logistics Limited Company,Wuhan 430040,China.;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉乐道物流有限公司,湖北武汉430040 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]湖北亿维动力有限公司,湖北荆门448000 [4]应急管理部天津消防研究所,天津300381

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2023年第1期61-66,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：湖北省重点研发项目(2020BCB077);湖北省安全生产专项资金科技项目(SJZX20211003).

摘　　要：危化品罐车事故致因分析能揭示事故中的一些规律,并为该类事故的预防和应急处置提供理论依据。为了深入研究该类事故的致因模式,分析相关的致因因素之间的联系,针对危化品罐车事故,从人、机、环境和管理4个维度,共提取23个与之相关的致因因素进行分析。采用关联规则(ARM)挖掘风险间的关联性,运用解释结构模型(ISM)构建风险因素的解释层级模型,通过上述两种方法的结合,能更加系统、直观地分析危化品罐车事故风险因素之间的关系。结果表明:与危化品罐车事故相关的风险因素可分为7个等级;“处置时间”为危化品罐车事故的结果;存在着跨层次的风险因素,会对危化品罐车事故造成更深刻的影响;部分风险因素属于同一类别,但处于不同的层次;控制较低层级的风险因素是避免危化品罐车事故的有效途径。The analysis of the causes of hazardous chemical tanker accidents can reveal some laws in the accidents,and provide theoretical basis for the prevention and emergency treatment of such accidents.In order to deeply study the causal mode of this kind of accident,the relationship between the causal factors related to this kind of accident is analyzed.For the hazardous chemicals tanker accident,from the four dimensions of human,machine,environment and management,23 related causative factors were extracted for analysis.The association rules(ARM)are used to mine the correlation between risks,and the explanatory structure modeling(ISM)is used to construct the explanatory hierarchical model of risk factors.Through the combination of the above two methods,the relationship between factors of the accident risk of hazardous chemical tankers can be analyzed more systematically and intuitively.The analysis results show that the risk factors related to the accident of hazardous chemical tanker can be divided into seven levels;"Disposal time"is the result of the accident of hazardous chemical tanker;There are cross-level risk factors that will have a deeper impact on hazardous chemical tanker accidents;Some risk factors are in the same category,but at different levels.Controlling lower-level risk factors is an effective way to avoid hazardous chemicals tanker accidents.

关 键 词：危化品 罐车 风险因素 有害物质 关联规则挖掘 解释性结构建模 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]