全球变化背景下特大干旱综合应对研究框架  

Initiatives on comprehensive response to severe drought in the context of global changes

作　　者：蒋云钟[1] 严子奇[1] 贾绍凤[2] 杨汉波[3] 畅建霞[4] 吴泽宁[5] JIANG Yunzhong;YAN Ziqi;JIA Shaofeng;YANG Hanbo;CHANG Jianxia;WU Zening(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [4]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [5]郑州大学黄河实验室,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水利学报》2023年第3期347-357,共11页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000200)。

摘　　要：全球变化背景下特大干旱综合应对研究是国家重大实践需求和科技前沿课题。大范围、长历时、高强度特大干旱具有“点面监测难协同、发展态势难预报、旱情程度难诊断、供需调控难兼顾”等防控难点。本研究提出特大干旱防控应对的三大关键科学问题,在“理论研究-技术开发-装备研制”的总体思路下,未来应以多技术融合为手段,在现有干旱防御技术体系基础上,进一步系统揭示特大干旱形成演变机理,创新特大干旱下供需双向调控机制,创建具有自主知识产权的特大干旱“监测预警-诊断评估-调控应对”成套理论技术体系和系统装备,在特大干旱全景监测、精确预报、精准诊断和智慧调控方面实现技术突破,更好地支撑干旱预报、预警、预演、预案“四预”措施推进和落实,为我国特大干旱应对实践提供科技支撑。Study on comprehensive response to severe drought in the context of global change is a major national practice demand and scientific and technological frontier topic.The large-scale,long-duration and high-intensity severe drought has the difficult points in coordination of point and area monitoring,prediction of development situation,diagnosis of drought severity,and balancing supply and demand regulation.This study proposes three key scientific issues for the prevention and control of severe drought,in the future,multi-technology integration should be used as a means to further systematically reveal the formation and evolution mechanism of severe drought,innovate the two-way regulation mechanism of supply and demand under severe drought,create a complete set of“monitoring-forecast-diagnosis-regulation”theory and technology system and equipment with independent intellectual property rights for the whole process of severe drought.Technological breakthroughs will be made in the areas of panoramic monitoring,accurate forecasting,accurate diagnosis and intelligent dispatching of the severe drought,which may better support forecasting,early warning,rehearsal and prescheme for drought,and provide scientific and technological support for China’s response to severe drought.

关 键 词：全球变化 特大干旱 精准诊断 双向调控 智慧调度 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]