充电设施运营商投资决策与电动汽车发展的交互作用机理研究  

Interaction Mechanism between Charging Facility Operators’ Investment Decision and the Development of Electric Vehicles

作　　者：史乐峰 王松 吕胜男 Shi Lefeng;Wang Song;Lv Shengnan(National Center for Applied Mathematics in Chongqing,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331;School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学重庆国家应用数学中心,重庆401331 [2]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第1期243-256,共14页Management Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY077);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(18YJC790137);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学重点研究项目(20SKGH036);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2020jcyj-msxmX0808)。

摘　　要：为促进电动汽车充电设施的建设,本文探析了充电设施运营商投资决策与电动汽车发展的交互作用机理。首先以Bass模型为基础,构建了体现电动汽车技术进步情况和充电设施供给情况的改进Bass模型,进而建立了电动汽车充电设施运营商的动态投资决策模型;然后分析了充电设施运营商面向当期电动汽车充电需求和未来电动汽车充电需求时的投资决策门槛;接着计量了投建运营充电设施对电动汽车发展的反向促进效应;最后分析了现行电动汽车充电设施发展中,不同激励政策的政策效力。研究发现:只有当边际收益和吸引度大于临界值时,充电设施运营商才会积极地投建运营充电设施;然而在电动汽车发展初期,该边际收益和吸引度往往低于临界值,充电设施运营商选择投资的动力不足,需要相关的政策进行激励;对比现行激励政策后发现,按充电桩的装机功率进行补贴的政策是最有利于刺激电动汽车充电设施投资的措施。仿真结果验证了本文的主要结论。In order to promote the construction of electric vehicle(EV) charging facilities effectively, and to find an efficient way to solve the current unbalance caused by high EV potential market-demand and the insufficient supply of charging facilities, it is necessary to explore the interaction mechanism between investment decision of charging facility operators and the development of EV. For this purpose, this paper firstly constructs an EV dynamic development model based on classic Bass model, which could reflect both the technological progress of EV and the supply improvement of charging facilities;then a dynamic investment decision model of charging facilities operators is formulated, whereby the marginal condition of charging facilities investment is analyzed further. Accordingly, the effectiveness of the existing incentive policies of EV charging facilities is also assessed. The main findings of this paper are as follows: the investors of charging facilities don’t have investment motivation when the marginal benefit of the investment can not reach the special critical value;especially in the initial period of EV development when the expected benefit of charging facilities investment is too far below the critical value to stimulate the investment motivation of the relevant investors;in order to motivate the investment in this stage, it is necessary to speculate some incentive policies;compared with the existing policies, it is found that subsidy based on the installed capacity of EV chargers is the most effective policy. At last, a simulation analysis is presented to demonstrate the main results of this paper.

关 键 词：电动汽车 BASS模型 充电设施 政策激励 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F426.471