数字经济下的中国工业资本回报率研究  

Analysis of China's Return on Industrial Capital under the Background of Digital Economy

作　　者：郭文 杨运杰[2] GUO Wen;YANG Yun-jie(Post-Doctoral Research Center Bank of Beijing,Beijing 100033,China;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100098,China)

机构地区：[1]北京银行博士后科研工作站,北京100033 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100098

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2023年第3期1-7,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：北京市社会科学院智库重点项目(2022A7098)。

摘　　要：围绕数字经济和高投资率是否合理的热点话题,文章首先运用改进的宏观模型测算2005—2020年中国省际工业资本回报率;并基于理论分解框架实证检验数字经济发展对工业资本回报率的作用强度和内在机制。测算结果表明,2005—2020年全国工业资本回报率呈现先升后降的变化态势,其中2005—2012年全国工业资本回报率保持上升趋势,2013—2020年呈现下降趋势。回归结果表明,数字经济发展对工业资本回报率具有显著的促进作用,即数字经济发展指数提高1%,工业资本回报率会提高约0.4%;数字经济发展可以通过降低资本错配程度和提高全要素生产率,进而提高工业资本回报率;数字经济发展对工业资本回报率的作用表现出显著的空间异质性。研究结论有助于准确把握数字经济时代工业资本回报率的变动特征,并为政策制定提供指导。Focusing on the hot topic of whether the digital economy and high investment rate are reasonable,this paper first uses the improved macro model to calculate the inter provincial industrial capital return rate of China from 2005 to 2020.Based on the theoretical decomposition framework,the paper empirically tests the impact intensity and internal mechanism of digital economy development on industrial capital return.The calculation results show that the national industrial capital return rate shows a change characteristic of first rising and then falling from 2005 to 2020,in which the national industrial capital return rate maintained an upward trend from 2005 to 2012 and a downward trend from 2013 to 2020.The regression results show that the development of digital economy has a significant role in promoting the rate of return on industrial capital.The digital economy development index will increase by 1%,and the rate of return on industrial capital will increase by about 0.4%;The development of digital economy can improve the return on industrial capital by reducing the degree of capital mismatch and improving total factor productivity;The effect of digital economy development on industrial capital return shows significant spatial heterogeneity.The research conclusion is helpful to accurately grasp the change trend of China's industrial capital return rate and provide a reasonable basis for industrial policy formulation.

关 键 词：数字经济 工业资本回报率 全要素生产率 资本错配 资本深化 

分 类 号：F823.5[经济管理—财政学]