2022年世界油气市场重大变化及2023年展望  

Major changes in the world oil and gas market in 2022 and prospects for 2023

作　　者：单卫国[1] 李昀霏 白桦[1] 张晓宇[1] SHAN Weiguo;LI Yunfei;BAI Hua;ZHANG Xiaoyu(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第2期30-39,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2022年世界石油和天然气市场均发生重大变化,特点非常明显。石油市场政治溢价突出,国际油价冲高后回归至正常水平,布伦特原油年均价格近100美元/桶;石油需求增速低于预期,仍未达到疫情前水平;石油供应增量创历史新高,“欧佩克+”减产量大大高于计划;对俄制裁限价重塑原油贸易格局,俄罗斯原油出口被迫“西降东升”。天然气价格出现历史性上涨,引发能源比价严重错乱,成为全球能源系统全面重构的始作俑者;欧洲天然气需求量大幅下降,带动全球天然气需求量下降近1%,这是自2008年以来的第三次下降;国际天然气生产格局和贸易流向发生剧烈变化,现货交易量急剧增长,合约交易日益灵活。2023年世界石油需求量可能超过疫情前水平,基本面延续紧平衡状态;国际油价同比回落,基准情景下,布伦特原油均价范围在80~90美元/桶;全球LNG产能增量小于需求增量,市场持续紧张;国际气价震幅收窄,总体回落,但仍处于高位。In 2022,enormous and remarkable changes had taken place in both the international oil and gas markets.Due to the outstanding geopolitical premium,the international oil price returned to normal after a spike,and the average annual price of Brent crude oil increased to nearly$100 per barrel.World oil consumption growth was much lower than expected,still below the pre-COVID 19 level.However,world oil supply growth reached a record high as OPEC plus production cuts were higher than planned.The sanction on Russian crude oil restructured the world crude oil trade patterns,as Russian crude oil export was forced to decrease westward but increase eastward.The international gas price jumped even higher and led to chaos in energy price comparison.The crazy gas price volatility was considered as the initiator of the complete restructuring of the world energy system.The world gas consumption was reduced for the third time since 2008 and decreased by 1%,because of the huge reduction of gas consumption in Europe.International natural gas production patterns and trade flows changed dramatically with the rapid growth of spot trading volume and increasingly flexible contract trading.In 2023,the world oil demand is likely to exceed pre-COVID19levels,the fundamentals will remain in tight balance,and international oil prices will fall year-on-year,with average Brent crude prices in the range of$80-$90 a barrel under the benchmark scenario.The world LNG production capacity addition shall be lower than demand growth,leading to continued market tightness.The gas price shall be dropped but at a relatively high level with narrowed volatility.

关 键 词：油气市场 价格 供需 贸易 乌克兰危机 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]