俄乌冲突与国际局势:回顾与展望  

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Situation:Retrospect and Prospect

作　　者：杨洁勉[1,2] 冯绍雷 徐明棋[5,6] 丁纯 郑春荣 赵隆[11] Yang Jiemian;Feng Shaolei;Xu Mingqi;Ding Chun;Zheng Chunrong;Zhao Long

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院学术咨询委员会 [2]华东师范大学 [3]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心 [4]上海高校智库华东师范大学周边合作与发展协同创新中心 [5]上海欧洲学会 [6]上海国际经济交流中心 [7]复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所 [8]复旦大学欧洲问题研究中心 [9]复旦大学一带一路及全球治理研究院 [10]同济大学德国研究中心1 [11]上海国际问题研究院全球治理研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2023年第1期28-63,共36页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项(项目编号:20VGQ012)的阶段性研究成果;国家社科基金重大研究专项(项目批准号:20VGQ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：持续一年的俄乌冲突导致国际秩序逐渐被撕裂和瓦解,全球和平合作、共同发展的国际秩序基础比以往要脆弱得多,国际形势趋向严峻。从长期来看,地缘政治风险担忧因素在全球供应链重组中的权重会进一步增加,将冲击效率优先的全球化格局,2023年全球经济仍然面临严峻考验。对中国而言,未来的国际环境将更为严峻,中国的政治、经济、科技、军事发展以及统一事业,将面临越来越多的外部压力和风险。而且,在美国的战略和举措的负面影响下,中国该如何处理与美国的关系,如何处理与欧洲、日本、韩国、澳大利亚等美国盟国的关系,如何处理与俄罗斯、印度、中东国家、东南亚国家、中亚国家、非洲国家、南太岛国等国的关系,都将面临更多的挑战。对此,我们要有深刻的认识和充分的准备,在党的二十大精神指导下,努力奋进,去迎接和化解各种复杂严峻的风险挑战,并且善用各种机遇,打造中国特色大国外交的新局面,为中国式现代化进程打造更加有利的内外环境。俄乌冲突发生在当下全球转型的复杂背景之下,而且全球转型的未来很可能取决于中国人能否承担更大的历史责任,中国应该在全球转型过程和俄乌冲突中更主动、更有意识发挥自身的作用。The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict has gradually torn apart and disintegrated the international order.The foundation of international order for global peace,cooperation and common development is much more fragile than before,and the international situation is becoming more severe.In the long run,the weight of geopolitical risk concerns in global supply chain restructuring will further increase,which will impact the globalization pattern which prioritizes efficiency.The global economy will still face severe tests in 2023.For China,the future international environment will become more severe.China’s politics,economy,and technology will encounter more and more external pressures and risks.Moreover,under negative influences of the U.S.strategies and measures,China will face more challenges when handling its relations with the U.S.,with U.S.allies such as Europe,Japan,South Korea,and Australia,and with Russia,India,Middle Eastern countries,Southeast Asian countries,Central Asian countries,African countries,South Pacific Island countries and others.In this regard,we must have an in-depth understanding and make full preparations.Guided by the spirit of the 20thNational Congress of the Communist Party of China,we will work hard to handle and resolve various complex and severe risks and challenges,making good use of various opportunities to continuously create a new situation for diplomacy with Chinese characteristics,seeking a more favorable internal and external environment for Chinese-style modernization.It is against the complex background of current global transformation that the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out.The Chinese should assume greater historical responsibilities for the future of global transformation.China,more consciously,will play a more active role during global transformation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 俄美关系 俄欧关系 世界经济形势 欧洲安全 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]