基于组合赋权Delphi的导弹作战能力指标体系优化方法研究  

Research on optimization method of missile operational capability index system based on combinatorial weighting Delphi

作　　者：张孝宇 张琪 时春鹏 韩晓斐 李震 Zhang Xiaoyu;Zhang Qi;Shi Chunpeng;Han Xiaofei;Li Zhen(College of Missile Engineering,Rocket Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710025,China)

机构地区：[1]火箭军工程大学导弹工程学院,西安710025

出　　处：《战术导弹技术》2023年第1期143-152,173,共11页Tactical Missile Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61573366)。

摘　　要：针对导弹作战能力指标体系构建存在完备性差的问题,利用DoDAF视图的方法分析导弹作战流程,建立作战活动-能力矩阵,初建了导弹作战能力指标体系。为解决评估对象的真实能力与某些指标重复映射的问题,提出了组合赋权Delphi法的指标体系优化模型。该模型利用三角模糊层次分析法(TFN-AHP)和熵权法组合赋权的方式对Delphi法的专家咨询表的权重模型进行修正,得到融合主观专家经验和客观数据的综合评价。运用变异系数法验证了指标体系的可信性,构建了具有完备性和无冗余性的指标体系。Aiming at the problem of poor completeness in the construction of missile operational capability index system,the DoDAF view is used to analyze the missile operational process,establish the operational activity-capability matrix,and initially establish the missile operational capability index system.To solve the repeat mapping problem of real ability and some indexes of evaluation object,a performance index system optimization model of the Delphi method is put forward.The model revises the weight model of expert consultation table in Delphi method by using the combination of triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,and obtains the comprehensive evaluation integrating subjective expert experience and objective data.The coefficient of variation method is used to verify the credibility of the index system,and the index system with completeness and no redundancy is constructed.

关 键 词：DELPHI法 三角模糊层次分析法 熵权法 导弹作战能力 体系结构框架 指标体系优化 指标筛选 

分 类 号：TJ76[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]