基于SEIR演化博弈模型的网络维权策略及衍生舆情传播研究  

Network Rights-Protection Strategy and Derivative Public Opinion Dissemination Based on SEIR Evolutionary Game Model

作　　者：朱光[1,2] 颜燚 杨沁蓉 ZHU Guang;YAN Yi;YANG Qinrong(Research Center of Risk Management and Emergency Decision Making,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学风险治理与应急决策研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《情报科学》2023年第3期89-99,共11页Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“泛在智慧环境下多源主体隐私感知及协同保护机制研究”(19CTQ019);南京信息工程大学风险治理与应急决策研究院开放课题“大数据环境下多源主体隐私风险感知及协同保护机制研究”。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】探寻网络维权过程中不同主体的行为策略及其对衍生舆情传播的影响,为网络维权事件的合理处置提供对策建议。【方法/过程】将网络维权过程划分为维权博弈与衍生舆情传播两个阶段,运用演化博弈研究弱势群体、强势集团与网络媒体之间的行为策略,运用SEIR模型研究不同演化稳定策略对衍生舆情传播的影响,并利用Matlab进行数值仿真与模型验证。【结果/结论】研究结果表明,网络媒体积极报道的感知收益对舆情传播具有显著影响,当网络媒体选择“消极报道”,强势集团选择“积极回应”时,网络维权衍生舆情易得到控制;当网络媒体选择“积极报道”,强势集团选择“消极逃避”时,舆情可能会失控。强势集团的社会认同感感知收益越高,其选择“积极应对”的概率越大,衍生舆情越易得到控制。遗忘率越大,舆情传播时间越短。【创新/局限】综合运用演化博弈与SEIR传染病动力学模型,深入分析主体行为策略对衍生舆情传播的影响,为网络维权事件的处理和应对提供了参考借鉴。【Purpose/significance】This study investigated the behavioral strategies of different entities in the process of network rightsprotection and their influence on the dissemination of derived public opinion,and provided several management suggestions for network rights-protection.【Method/process】This study divided the process of network rights-protection into the stage of rightsprotection game and the stage of derived public opinion dissemination.We discussed the behavioral strategies between vulnerable groups,powerful groups and network media by using evolutionary game,and explored the influence of different evolutionary stability strategies(ESS) on the dissemination of derived public opinion based on the SEIR model.At last,the numerical simulation is conducted to verify the model analysis by using Matlab.【Result/conclusion】The results show that the perceived benefits of positive reports of network media have a significant impact on the dissemination of public opinion.If network media choose "passively report" and powerful groups choose "actively response",the public opinion can be easily controlled.If network media choose "actively report" and powerful groups choose to "passively escape",public opinion may be out of control.Moreover,the higher the perceived benefits of social identity of powerful groups,the more likely they choose "actively response",which is beneficial to the control of the derived public opinion.Additionally,the higher the forgetting rate,the shorter the public opinion dissemination time.【Innovation/limitation】By using the evolutionary game and SEIR model,the influence of behavioral strategies on public opinion dissemination is discussed in depth,which can provide valuable suggestions for the handling and responding of network rights-protection.

关 键 词：网络维权 舆情传播 维权策略 演化博弈 SEIR模型 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]