上海市居民共享自动驾驶汽车使用意愿研究  

Residents’Willingness to Use Shared Autonomous Vehicles in Shanghai

作　　者：李雨桐 叶昕[1] LI Yutong;YE Xin(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第3期163-169,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71671129)。

摘　　要：作为极具潜力的新型出行方式,共享自动驾驶汽车的出现必将引起居民出行行为的转变。为了研究上海市居民共享自动驾驶汽车的使用意愿及影响因素,本文利用网络问卷调查的RP与SP数据,结合百度地图API数据,构建基于解析逼近估计方法的多项Probit模型。结果显示:共享自动驾驶汽车通勤和非通勤出行中时间价值分别为64.34元/小时和81.55元/小时,弹性分析结果显示居民对于等候时间的敏感性显著高于费用;男性、已婚、高收入、高学历、自由职业者、合乘通勤者、年龄小于18岁的人群,以及家庭有未成年儿童、拥有沪C牌照小汽车的居民使用意愿较强。居民对于共享自动驾驶汽车越了解,使用意愿越强烈,而体验过自动驾驶服务的居民使用意愿更为强烈。As a potential new mode of travel,the emergence of shared autonomous vehicles(SAV)inevitably leads to changes in residents'travel behavior.In order to study residents’willingness to use shared autonomous vehicles in Shanghai and the influencing factors,this paper uses the RP and SP data collected from an online survey.combined with the Baidu API data to develop a Multinomial Probit model based on the analytical approximation estimation method.The results show that the VOT(value-of-time)of shared autonomous vehicles for commuting and non-commuting travel is 64.34 yuan/hour and 81.55 yuan/hour respectively.Elasticity analysis results show that residents are more sensitive to the waiting time than the cost.The Shanghai residents of male,married,high-income,highly educated,freelancers,ride-sharing commuters,people younger than 18 years old,living with underage children,owning cars with Shanghai C licensed cars show more willing-ness 2to use SAV service.The more residents know about shared auto-nomous vehicles,the more willing they are to use them.Those who ever experienced autonomous driving service show stronger willingness to use it.

关 键 词：共享自动驾驶汽车 使用意愿 MNP模型 解析估计 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]