我国家庭债务风险的测度——基于流动性与偿还能力视角  

Measurement of Household Debt Risks in China——From the Perspective ofLiquidity and Solvency

作　　者：姚玲珍[1] 乔贝 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《中国房地产金融》2023年第1期57-67,76,共12页China Real Estate Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“债务负担视角下城镇居民住房选择与消费行为关系研究:理论机制与政策效应”(72174115)。

摘　　要：随着居民部门杠杆率急剧上升,其所隐含的家庭债务风险已引起社会各界高度关注。但如何测度家庭债务风险,却鲜有研究。本文基于2010-2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),借鉴企业债务风险测度方法,利用修正后的利息保障倍数指标,测度短期流动性视角下家庭债务风险;并参考家庭“贫困脆弱性”的测度思想,构建家庭债务规模的线性模型,运用三阶段广义最小二乘法(FGLS)测度长期偿还能力视角下的家庭债务风险。结果表明,短期流动性视角下家庭债务风险呈现先升后降的趋势,家庭流动性资产占比先降后升是产生这一波动的主要原因;长期偿还能力视角下债务风险具有稳定上升趋势,且风险水平高于短期债务风险。此外,户主年龄、家庭收入及地区差异对债务风险有显著影响。细分债务类别后发现,家庭住房债务风险显著高于非住房债务风险。With the sharp rise of the leverage ratio of the residential sector,the implied household debt risk has attracted great attention from all sectors of society.However,how to measure household debt risk is rarely studied.Based on China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)data from 2010 to 2018,this paper uses the corporate debt risk measurement method for reference and adopts the revised interest coverage index to measure household debt risk from the perspective of short-term liquidity;furthermore,with reference to the measurement idea of household“poverty vulnerability”,a linear model of household debt scale is built and the three-stage generalized least squares(FGLS)method is applied to measure household debt risk from the perspective of long-term solvency.The results show that from the perspective of short-term liquidity,the risk of household debt increases firstly and then decreases.For this fluctuation,the major cause is the proportion of household liquidity assets decreases firstly and then increases.Moreover,from the perspective of long-term solvency,the debt risk has a stable upward trend and the risk level is higher than the short-term debt risk.In addition,the age of homeowner,household income and regional differences have significant impacts on household debt risk.Finally,the risk of household housing debt is markedly higher than that of non-housing debt after subdividing the debt categories.

关 键 词：家庭债务 风险测度 利息保障倍数 FGLS 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]