近地小行星监测预警六度分析框架  

Six-degree analysis framework for near-Earth asteroids monitoring and warning

作　　者：赵坚 张如生 李明涛 于喜双 赵海斌[3,10] 宋政吉 程昊文[5,9] 张嵬[6] 刘志敏 李彬[3,10] 叶钊[8] 冯思亮 Jian Zhao;Rusheng Zhang;Mingtao Li;Xishuang Yu;Haibin Zhao;Zhengji Song;Haowen Cheng;Wei Zhang;Zhimin Liu;Bin Li;Zhao Ye;Siliang Feng(Key Projects Engineering Center of State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defense,Beijing 100101,China;National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Purple Mountain Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210023,China;Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering,Beijing 100094,China;National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Shanghai Institute of Satellite Engineering,Shanghai 200240,China;Beijing Institute of Space Mechanics&Electricity,Beijing 100094,China;Aerospace Dongfanghong Satellite Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100094,China;School of Astronomy and Space Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Astronomy and Space Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Heifei 230026,China)

机构地区：[1]国家国防科技工业局重大专项工程中心,北京100101 [2]中国科学院国家空间科学中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院紫金山天文台,南京210023 [4]北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京100094 [5]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100101 [6]上海卫星工程研究所,上海200240 [7]北京空间机电研究所,北京100094 [8]航天东方红卫星有限公司,北京100094 [9]中国科学院大学天文与空间科学学院,北京100049 [10]中国科学技术大学天文与空间科学学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《科学通报》2023年第8期981-992,共12页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家国防科技工业局空间碎片与小行星专项(KJSP2020020102);北京市重大科技专项(Z181100002918004);空间科学任务预先研究(XDA15014900);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助。

摘　　要：近地小行星撞击是国际社会面临的共同威胁.作为来自外空的非传统类型灾害风险,其中包含着威胁整个人类文明安全的超级重大风险.通过监测预警发现并识别风险,是实施小行星防御、防范化解小行星撞击风险的前提条件.当前,经过多年持续投入和开展专用设备业务运行,人类已发现编目超过2.9万颗近地小行星,并且通过专用系统分析了它们的撞击风险.按照小行星群体分布的理论模型,还有大量可能危及人民生命财产安全、国土安全甚至是地球环境安全的近地小行星藏匿于茫茫太空之中.2013年,俄罗斯车里雅宾斯克地区的近地小行星撞击事件发生前没有任何预警信息,表明现有小行星监测预警系统尚存在漏洞.面对人类长期可持续发展的根本需求,本文在分析近地小行星监测预警现状的基础上,围绕对近地小行星“全面监测”“精准预警”的总体要求,面向“普查编目”和“风险预警”运行场景,提出了基于“六度”(深度、广度、频度、精度、维度和速度)分析框架评估监测预警体系能力的构想,并对六度要素的内涵进行了理论探讨,冀望助力人类命运共同体构建,为我国近地小行星监测预警体系规划、论证、设计、建设和运行提供基础理论支撑.Near-Earth asteroid(NEA)impact is a serious threat faced by the international community.As a non-traditional disaster from outer space,it may bring an unprecedented risk that could threaten the security of the entire human civilization.Detecting and identifying risks through monitoring and warning is a prerequisite for implementing planetary defense activities to mitigate asteroid impact risks.After years of continuous investment and operation of NEA monitoring and warning systems,including ground-based telescopes and space-based telescopes,over 30000 NEAs have been discovered and cataloged to date,and the risks of potential NEA impacts are analyzed via dedicated systems.However,according to the theoretic model of NEA population,numerous NEAs are yet to be discovered,which may threaten the safety of people’s lives and property,homeland security,and even the Earth’s environment,and may lead to the global extinction of species,including humans.There was no warning information regarding the asteroid impact event in the Chelyabinsk region of Russia in 2013 before its occurrence,highlighting the blind areas in the existing NEA monitoring and warning systems.To ensure the long-term sustainable development of humankind,this paper focuses on the overall need for“comprehensive monitoring”and“accurate early warning”of NEAs,analyzes the current status of NEA monitoring and warning,and proposes a“six-degree”analysis framework to evaluate the capability of NEA monitoring and warning systems.The implications of“six-degree”,namely“depth”,“width”,“frequency”,“precision”,“dimension”,and“speed”,are discussed theoretically.This study provides basic theoretical support for promoting the planning,demonstration,design,construction,and operation of NEA monitoring and warning systems,thereby helping build a community of shared future for humankind.

关 键 词：近地小行星 监测预警 体系设计 六度分析框架 

分 类 号：P185.7[天文地球—天文学]