基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统的游客规模预测研究  

Prediction of tourist scale based on adaptive neural network fuzzy inference system

作　　者：张永健 ZHANG Yong-jian(College of Technology,Guangzhou College of Technology and Business,Guangzhou 510850,China)

机构地区：[1]广州工商学院工学院,广州510850

出　　处：《白城师范学院学报》2023年第2期14-20,共7页Journal of Baicheng Normal University

基　　金：广州工商学院质量工程建设项目“新工科背景下大学计算机基础课堂教学优化的研究与实践”(ZL20221048).

摘　　要：对景区游客规模进行比较准确的预测可以为游客出行提供参考,为景区管理、规划提供可靠的依据.文章利用自适应神经网络模糊推理系统对九寨沟景区游客规模进行预测研究.通过SPSS软件对已收集到的影响九寨沟景区游客规模的因素进行重要性分析,并筛选影响游客规模的重要因素;采用MATLAB软件进行建模和仿真,对模型的训练最终得到准确度较高的模型,并与简单移动平均法进行比较分析.结果表明,自适应神经网络模糊推理系统应用于九寨沟游客规模的预测准确度较高,具有可行性和极强的应用价值.A relatively accurate prediction of the tourist scale of scenic spots can provide a reference for tourists to travel,and provide a reliable basis for scenic spot management and planning.Using the adaptive neu-ral network fuzzy inference system to predict the tourist scale in Jiuzhaigou scenic area.SPSS software is used to analyze the importance of the collected factors affecting the scale of tourists in Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area,and screen the important factors that affect the tourist scale.MATLAB software is used for modeling and simula-tion,and the training of the model finally obtains a high-accuracy model,and compared with the simple mov-ing average method.The results show that the adaptive neural network fuzzy inference system applied to the Jiuzhaigou tourist scale has high prediction accuracy,and has feasibility and strong application value.

关 键 词：ANFIS MATLAB软件 游客规模 预测模型 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]