外来物种海灰翅夜蛾的潜在地理分布研究  

Potential geographical distribution of the alien species Spodoptera littoralis(Boisduval)in China

作　　者：徐艳玲 杨海林 秦誉嘉 刘珏廷 李志红 赵紫华 XU Yanling;Yang Hailin;Qin Yujia;Liu Jueting;Li Zhihong;Zhao Zihua(Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Department of Plant Biosecurity,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Yunnan Tobacco Company,Yuxi Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学植物保护学院植物生物安全系/农村农业部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室,北京1100193 [2]云南省烟草公司玉溪市公司

出　　处：《植物检疫》2023年第2期74-80,共7页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：中国烟草总公司云南省公司科技计划重大专项(2022530000241021);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2600401);财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-02)。

摘　　要：海灰翅夜蛾[Spodoptera littoralis(Boisduval)]原产于非洲,属于多食性害虫,能够取食烟草、玉米、棉花、花生、大豆等多种作物并导致减产。本文基于MaxEnt模型筛选了关键气候因子,并对海灰翅夜蛾在中国的潜在地理分布进行了预测。结果表明,影响海灰翅夜蛾分布的主要环境变量是温度、寄主及降水。预测模型的AUC均值为0.914,模型性能良好。历史气候条件下海灰翅夜蛾在我国的潜在地理分布主要分布在我国西南及东南地区,适生区占我国陆地总面积的9.19%;未来气候条件下,海灰翅夜蛾在我国的适生区显著扩张,质心由南往北移动。因此,海灰翅夜蛾在我国存在广泛的潜在适生区,有必要在其潜在适生地区加强对该物种的监测和预警,以防止其入侵危及农作物的生产安全。Spodoptera littoralis(Boisduval),native to Africa,known as a highly polyphagous pest,can feed on tobacco,maize,cotton,peanut,soybean and so on and cause yield reduction.The study screened critical climate factors and predicted the potential geographic distribution area of S.littoralis in China based on MaxEnt model.The results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of S.littoralis were temperature,host and precipitation.The mean AUC of MaxEnt model was 0.914and the model performanced well.Under the historical climate conditions,the potential geographical distribution of S.littoralis mainly occured in southwest and southeast of China,and the total suitable areas occupied 9.19%of total land area;under the future climate scenarios,the suitable area of S.littoralis in China showed a significant expansion trend,and the centroid would move from south to north.Therefore,there is a wide range of potential habitat areas for S.littoralis in China,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and pre-warning of this species in its potential distribution area to prevent its invasion and endanger the production safety of crops.

关 键 词：海灰翅夜蛾 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]