IPCC AR6:长期减排路径  

AR6 WGIII report:long-term mitigation pathways

作　　者：姜克隽 JIANG Ke-Jun(Energy Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Macro-Economic Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第2期133-138,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家社科重大项目(21ZDA085);国家社科重点课题(21AZD042)。

摘　　要：IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组报告于2022年4月发布,与前几次评估报告类似,其中一章是长期减排路径。每次评估报告长期减排路径在整个评估过程中扮演重要角色。长期减排路径可以为全球未来的合作提供学术支持。第六次评估报告对到2021年为止的公开发表的情景进行了评估,其中主要的情景是针对《巴黎协定》中提出的温升目标进行的研究,这次评估报告长期减排路径的核心是分析实现《巴黎协定》目标的路径和相关政策、成本,以及和可持续发展目标的关联。本文解析了IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组报告中第三章的主要评估结果,也给出了未来长期减排路径研究的方向。实现《巴黎协定》温升目标下的碳预算随着CO_(2)排放持续上升而缩减,要实现这些目标,全球需要在2025年之前实现碳达峰之后进入快速下降阶段,并在未来需要负排放技术,所有部门都需要有力的减排措施,这些减排会给经济发展带来一定的负担。IPCC AR6 WGIII report was published in April 2022.Similar to previous IPCC assessment reports,one of the chapters is long-term mitigation pathways,which play an important role in every assessment report process.Long-term mitigation pathways provide basis for understanding on warming levels or warming targets,and support the international collaboration on GHG mitigation.AR6 again made assessment on emission scenarios published by 2021,majority of these emission scenarios were taking warming targets in Paris Agreement.This report focused on assessment on pathways,policies,cost-benefit and linking with SDGs(Sustainable Development Goals)under the Paris Agreement warming targets.This paper presents the key findings from the Chapter 3 of the report.Achieving the warming targets in Paris Agreement,global emissions need to peak before 2025,and then make rapid decrease.Negative emission technologies are needed in future,and effective emission reductions in all sectors are essential,and the mitigation could bring negative effects on economy development.

关 键 词：IPCC 减排路径 第六次评估报告 《巴黎协定》 情景 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]