多因素影响下西部“一带一路”沿线城市建筑供热能耗的时空分布响应  

The spatio-temporal distribution response on building heating energy consumption of cities along“the Belt and Road”in Western China under multifactorial impact

作　　者：杨雯 张冠杰[2] 李朝明 郑何山 刘加平 YANG Wen;ZHANG Guanjie;LI Zhaoming;ZHENG Heshan;LIU Jiaping(State Key Laboratory of Green Building in Western China,Xi′an 710055,China;School of Architecture,Xi′an Univ.of Arch.&Tech.,Xi′an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西部绿色建筑国家重点实验室,陕西西安710055 [2]西安建筑科技大学建筑学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第6期827-837,共11页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2022-XZ-38);中国博士后科研基金项目(2021M702551);西部绿色建筑国家重点实验室自主研究基金课题项目(LSZZ202201)。

摘　　要：为了描述多因素影响下西部“一带一路”沿线城市建筑供热能耗的时空分布特征,通过空间相关分析获取2010—2020年建筑供热能耗的空间分布规律,采用标准差椭圆分析方法描述空间分布的时间演变格局.基于STIRPAT建立数学模型,揭示了建筑供热能耗受各因素(人口总量、城镇化率、人均供热面积、第三产业增长指数及技术创新水平)影响的规律特征.结果表明,西部“一带一路”沿线城市的供热能耗存在空间效应,仍处于不均衡发展阶段;影响因素的权重分布也不尽相同,除青海外,西部“一带一路”沿线省份及自治区的建筑供热能耗总量的主要驱动力均为人均建筑供热面积,甘肃、宁夏和青海的建筑供热能耗强度的主要驱动力为技术创新水平.研究结果以期为相关政策的制定提供一定支持.In order to describe the spatial-temporal distribution response characteristics on the buildings heating energy consumption of cities along the“the Belt and Road”in western China under multifactorial impact,the spatial distribution law of heating energy consumption of buildings from 2010 to 2020 was obtained through spatial correlation analysis,and the standard deviation ellipse analysis method was used to describe the temporal evolution pattern of spatial distribution.Based on STIRPAT,a mathematical model is established to reveal the regular characteristics of building heating energy consumption affected by various factors(total population,urbanization rate,per capita area,tertiary industry growth index and technological innovation level).The results show that there is a spatial effect on the intensity and total amount of heating energy consumption in cities along“the Belt and Road”in western China,which is still in an unbalanced development stage.The weight distribution of influencing factors is also different.Except Qinghai,the main driving force of the total building heating energy consumption of provinces and autonomous regions along“the Belt and Road”in western China is the per capita building heating area.The main driving force of the building heating energy consumption intensity in Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai is the level of technological innovation.The research results are expected to provide some support for the formulation of relevant policies.

关 键 词：建筑供热能耗 空间自相关分析 时空分布 影响因素 

分 类 号：TU832[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]