考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型  

Two-stage location-allocation model of emergency shelter considering public selection preference

作　　者：韩业凡 吕伟[1] 周雯楠 李海航 HAN Yefan;LYU Wei;ZHOU Wennan;LI Haihang(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;College of Quality&Safety Engineering,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]中国计量大学质量与安全工程学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第3期20-26,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52072286);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2021zy072,202110497088);浙江省安全工程与技术研究重点实验室开放基金项目(202002)。

摘　　要：为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明:双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。In order to make the opened emergency shelters conform to the actual situation of public self-sheltering,the Huff model was used for reference to quantify the public’s selection behavior,and a two-stage location-allocation model was constructed.In the first stage,the locations of opened emergency shelters were determined.In the second stage,the victims under overflow capacity were re-allocated to the shelters with residual capacity,and the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve the model.The results showed that the model could realize the process of victims from the same demand point going to different shelters.The intervention policy of the manager could increase the number of service personnel,avoid the waste of resources and the displacement of victims.The secondary distribution mainly depended on the results of the first stage.The results can provide reference basis for the management department to plan the emergency shelters.

关 键 词：应急避难场所 公众选择偏好 选址-分配模型 Huff模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]