模拟预测气候变化对斜纹夜蛾潜在地理分布区及越冬边界的影响  

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution and overwintering boundary of Spodoptera litura

作　　者：张文秀 周清华[1] 杨柳[1,2] 王东歧 吴平华 秦光明[1] 蔡高磊[1] 付宏阳[1] 周炀 Zhang Wenxiu;Zhou Qinghua;Yang Liu;Wang Dongqi;Wu Pinghua;Qin Guangming;Cai Gaolei;Fu Hongyang;Zhou Yang(Shiyan Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Shiyan Agricultural Science and Technology Research and Extension Center,Shiyan Hubei 442000,China;National Characteristic Vegetable Technology Industry System Test Station,Shiyan Hubei 442000,China)

机构地区：[1]十堰市农业科学院/十堰市农业科学技术研究推广中心,湖北十堰442000 [2]国家特色蔬菜技术产业体系试验站,湖北十堰442000

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2023年第2期31-39,共9页China Plant Protection

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程协同创新项目(CAAS-XTCX2016015);国家重点研发计划(2019YFD1002000);国家土壤质量郧阳观测试验点(NAESSQ054);国家植物保护郧阳观测试验点(NAESPP78)。

摘　　要：以斜纹夜蛾为研究对象,基于全国范围内斜纹夜蛾分布记录及全球气候数据库气候因子信息,采用生态位模拟预测现代(1970-2000年)、2050s(2041-2060年)和2070s(2061-2080年)斜纹夜蛾在我国自然条件下的潜在地理分布区及其越冬边界,采用刀切法(Jackknife)分析评价气候因子对斜纹夜蛾分布的影响。结果表明:最冷月份最低温(bio6)是影响斜纹夜蛾分布最重要的气候因子;现代斜纹夜蛾在我国的最适宜分布区主要集中在华东地区和华中地区。在未来气候变暖条件下,2050s时期,斜纹夜蛾在我国的适生分布范围扩大并往北扩张,江苏、河南、安徽三省最适宜分布区范围扩大明显,北方的陕西省和山西省发展为最适宜分布区;2070s时期,适生分布范围继续往北扩张,但最适宜分布区有所减小。当前,斜纹夜蛾自然越冬区域在我国冬季最冷月份温度0℃以上区域,其自然越冬边界和冬季0℃分界线大致吻合。在地势上,斜纹夜蛾的自然越冬边界主要为我国横断山脉、秦岭和太行山脉北部一线,其分布区主要在我国第二级阶梯和第三级阶梯。未来气候变暖,斜纹夜蛾的自然越冬边界会往高纬度和高海拔地区扩张。Taking Spodoptera litura as a research object,based on the distribution records of S.litura in China and the climate factor information in the global climate database,we projected its potential distribution in three periods,near current(1970-2000),the 2050s(2041-2060)and the 2070s(2061-2080),and the overwintering boundary in China using niche modeling.The Jackknife method was used to evaluate the influence of climatic factors on the distribution of S.litura.The results showed that the minimum temperature in the coldest month(bio6)was the most important climatic factor influencing the distribution of S.litura.At present,the most suitable distribution areas of S.litura in China are mainly concentrated in East China and Central China.Under the condition of future climate warming,in the 2050s,the suitable distribution area of S.litura in China would expand and move northward,and the most suitable distribution area in Jiangsu,Henan,and Anhui would expand significantly,and Shaanxi and Shanxi would become the most suitable distribution areas.In the 207Os,the suitable distribution range would continue to expand northward,but the most suitable areas would be reduced.The natural overwintering area of S.litura in China is in the area where the minimum temperature in the coldest month of winter is above O℃,and its natural overwintering boundary is roughly consistent with the O℃ boundary in winter.In terms of topography,the natural overwintering boundary of S.litura is mainly distributed along the northern line of the Hengduan Mountains,Qinling Mountains,and Taihang Mountains in China,and its distribution area is mainly in the second and third steps in China.With future climate warming,the natural overwintering range of S.litura will expand to high latitudes and high altitudes.

关 键 词：斜纹夜蛾 气候变暖 生态位模拟 分布预测 

分 类 号：S431.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]