中国钴供应链风险与控制力评价  

Evaluation of Risk and Control of China's Cobalt Supply Chain

作　　者：袁小晶 马哲 王安建[1,2] 李建武[1,2] 钟维琼[1,2] YUAN Xiao-jing;MA Zhe;WANG An-jian;LI Jian-wu;ZHONG Wei-qiong(MNR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Resources Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037;Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Bejing 100037)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《地球学报》2023年第2期351-360,共10页Acta Geoscientica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目“中国关键金属矿产清单厘定与风险评估”(编号:92162321);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号:72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号:71991480);课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号:71991485);中国地质调查局地质调查项目“全球矿产资源战略研究”(编号:DD20221795)联合资助。

摘　　要：钴是我国极度短缺的矿产资源,同时也是战略新兴产业必需的原材料,保证钴的稳定供应是产业发展的关键所在。本文立足钴的供应链,基于我国进出口情况,将上游环节的钴精矿和湿法冶炼中间产品定义为短缺产品,将中游环节的精炼钴、下游环节的锂电池定义为优势产品。基于理论数据对上游产品进行供应风险评价,发现由于国内一次、二次资源供应能力不足,进口高度集中等因素导致上游产品供应风险极高。在实际贸易格局中,虽未出现断供的情况,但由于进口过于集中,贸易自由度较低,易受他国制约。对中、下游产品进行供应控制力评价,发现我国从生产、出口以及企业表现三个方面均处于全球领先水平,且下游产品还具有较高的贸易联系能力、与他国的调节能力和资源控制能力。综合考虑当上游产品进口中断会严重制约中、下游发展,对此提出完善回收体系、优化进口来源、建立供应链安全预警机制等建议。Cobalt is a strategically important raw material,currently in extreme shortage in China.Ensuring a stable supply of cobalt is key to industrial development.From the perspective of the cobalt supply chain,this study defined the cobalt concentrate and intermediate wet smelting products in the upstream link as shortage products,and refined cobalt in the midstream link and lithium batteries in the downstream link as the desired products,based on the trade situation in China.From the theoretical data we used to evaluate the supply risk of the upstream products,we found that the supply risk of upstream products was extremely high due to factors such as the insufficient domestic supply capacity of primary and secondary resources and the high concentration of imports.In the actual trade pattern,although no break in supply has occurred,freedom of trade is restricted and trade is vulnerable to constraints from other countries due to the over-concentration of imports.From an evaluation of the control of the supply of midstream and downstream products,we found that China is a global leader in three areas:production,exports,and corporate performance;downstream products showed a high capacity for trade linkages,regulation with other countries,and resource controls.As the disruption of imports of upstream products will seriously restrict the development of the upstream and downstream industries,we provide sugstions to impove the reling system,otimine import sures,and stablish an erly waning mechanism to ensure supply chain security.

关 键 词：钴 供应链 供应风险 供应控制力 

分 类 号：F426.1[经济管理—产业经济] F274