主要国家间石油贸易演化博弈分析——以中国、俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯为例  

Game Analysis of Oil Trade among Major Countries:Taking China,Russia,India and Saudi Arabia as Examples

作　　者：姜志豪 钟维琼[1] 韩梅[1] JIANG Zhi-hao;ZHONG Wei-qiong;HAN Mei(Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037;School of Earth Resources,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,Hubei 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《地球学报》2023年第2期387-394,共8页Acta Geoscientica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用”(编号:72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(编号:71991480);课题5“新时代中国战略性关键矿产资源全球治理体系研究”(编号:71991485)联合资助。

摘　　要：为应对后疫情时代及地缘政治影响下石油贸易新格局,保障新时代、新格局下中国石油安全,本文以全球石油贸易新格局为背景,对中国、俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯四国石油贸易进行建模。由于沙特阿拉伯与中国、印度石油贸易长期处于安全、稳定状态,本次实验运用演化博弈理论对中国与印度的能源竞争以及中国与俄罗斯的能源合作进行定量分析。研究结果表明:1)印度持续增加俄罗斯石油进口将对我国石油安全造成威胁,在印度对俄罗斯的石油进口占比达到16.5%时,将改变四国石油贸易结构,成为我国的重要威胁。2)俄罗斯出口意愿对结果产生直接影响,在俄罗斯出口意愿持续降低时,仿真结果产生变化,对我国石油安全造成威胁。在世界石油贸易格局变化后的新时代,本研究对保障中国石油安全有重要意义。A new pattern of oil trade has emerged under the influence of geopolitics and the COVID-19 pandemic.To explore China’s oil security in these changed times,this study takes the new pattern of global oil trade as the background and adopts the oil trade models of Russia,India,Saudi Arabia,and China itself.Since Saudi Arabia’s oil trade with China and India has been safe and stable for long,this study uses evolutionary game theory to make a quantitative analysis of the energy competition between China and India and the energy cooperation between China and Russia.The research results reveal the following:1)The continued increase in India’s Russian oil imports will pose a threat to China’s oil security.When India’s oil imports from Russia reach 16.5%,it will change the oil trade structure of the four countries and become a crucial threat to China and 2)Russia’s willingness to export has a direct impact on the results.As Russia’s willingness to export declines,it will affect the results and pose a threat to China’s oil security.This study is of great significance as it provides meaningful insights to ensure China’s oil security in the post pandemic era with key changes in the world’s oil trade pattern.

关 键 词：石油安全 演化博弈 能源合作 能源竞争 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746