我国省域新能源发电效率评估及其发展战略研究  

Study on Efficiency Evaluation and Development Strategy of New Energy Generation in China

作　　者：董福贵[1] 杨玉桂 李婉莹 DONG Fu-gui;YANG yu-gui;LI Wan-ying(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第2期24-32,共9页Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：北京社科基金项目“碳达峰碳中和”目标下京津冀地区新能源发展战略研究(21JJB012)。

摘　　要：新能源发电效率评价是从管理决策视角解决当前中国新能源发电行业发展不充分、不平衡等问题的重要途径。本文首先通过超效率DEA模型对中国31个省份2020年新能源发电效率进行实证分析研究,然后依据效率测算结果以及各省新能源消纳完成情况,使用密度峰聚类方法将31个省份划分为四类地区。研究发现:一类地区新能源发电效率较低,应该因地制宜发展海上风电、分布式光伏发电等;二类地区风电效率明显低于光伏发电效率,因此该类地区应该发挥风力资源丰富的优势,着重提高风力发电效率;三类地区风电效率高于光伏发电效率,应该聚焦于光伏发电效率的提升,注重分布式光伏发电的发展;四类地区新能源发电效率较高但消纳完成度一般,需要合理增加新能源装机容量,提高新能源消纳水平。The evaluation of the efficiency of new energy generation is an important way to solve the problems of inadequate and unbalanced development of China’s new energy generation industry from the perspective of management decision.In this paper,an empirical analysis is made on the efficiency of new energy generation in 31 Provinces of China in 2020 through the super-efficiency DEA model.Then,according to the efficiency measurement results and the completion of new energy accommodation in each province,the 31 provinces were divided into 4 categories using density peak clustering method.The following results have been found.The first type of new energy power generation efficiency is low,offshore wind power should be developed,and photovoltaic power generation should be distributed according to local conditions.The efficiency of wind power in the second category is obviously lower than that of photovoltaic power generation.Therefore,these regions should give full play to the advantages of rich wind resources and focus on improving the efficiency of wind power generation.The efficiency of wind power in the third category is higher than that of photovoltaic power generation,which should focus on the improvement of photovoltaic power generation efficiency and pay attention to the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation.In the fourth category,the new energy generation efficiency is high but the absorption completion degree is average.It is necessary to increase the installed capacity of new energy reasonably and improve the level of new energy accommodation.

关 键 词：新能源 超效率DEA 密度峰聚类 新能源消纳 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济] F273.1