2012—2019年河北省手足口病流行特征分析及发病预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Hebei province from 2012 to 2019

作　　者：李晨晨 刘莹莹[2] 赵文娜[2] 谢赟[2] 苏通[2] 于秋丽[2] 韩旭[2] 李琦[2] Li Chenchen;Liu Yingying;Zhao Wenna;Xie Yun;Su Tong;Yu Qiuli;Han Xu;Li Qi(School of Public Health,Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China;Institute of Virus Disease Prevention and Control,Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学公共卫生学院,保定071000 [2]河北省疾病预防控制中心病毒病防治所,石家庄050021

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2023年第1期46-50,共5页International Journal of Virology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(No.2018ZX10713002);河北省重大医学科研资助项目(No.zd2013068)。

摘　　要：目的描述河北省2012—2019年手足口病的流行特征,建立季节性自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive moving average model,ARIMA),探讨其在河北省手足口病短期发病预测中的应用。方法收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2012—2019年河北省手足口病监测数据进行描述性流行病学分析,使用R4.1.3软件对2012年1月—2019年6月的数据进行ARIMA模型拟合,利用最优模型对2019年7—12月的月发病率进行预测。结果2012—2019年共报告手足口病456814例,年均发病率为76.89/10万,发病率整体呈下降趋势(x_(趋势)^(2)=32418.80,P<0.01),年递降率为18.36%。5—7月是发病大高峰期,病例占比达62.28%;男性患者发病数是女性患者的1.54倍,主要集中在5岁以下的散居儿童;年均发病率前三位为廊坊市、保定市和承德市。ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,2)_(12)模型拟合度较好,各月发病率实际值均在预测值95%CI内。结论近年来河北省手足口病发病呈下降趋势,针对其流行特点,要加强重点人群、重点地区的防控;构建的ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,2)12模型可用于河北省手足口病短期预测。Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Hebei Province from 2012 to 2019,to establish a seasonal autoregressive moving average model(ARIMA),and to discuss the application in short-term incidence prediction of HFMD in Hebei Province.Methods The surveillance data of HFMD in Hebei province from 2012 to 2019 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for descriptive epidemiological analysis.The ARIMA model was fitted to the data from January 2012 to June 2019 using R4.1.3 software.The monthly incidence rates from July 2019 to December 2019 were predicted by the optimal model.Results A total of 456814 cases of HFMD were reported from 2012 to 2019,with an average annual incidence of 76.89/100000.The incidence showed a downward trend(x^(2)_(trend)=32418.80,P<0.01)in general,with an annual decline rate of 18.36%.The major peaks of incidence were in May-July with the proportion of cases reaching 62.28%.The incidence of male patients was 1.54 times to that of female patients,mainly in scattered children under 5 years old.The average annual incidence rates in Langfang city,Baoding city and Chengde city ranked top three.The ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,2)_(12) model showed a good fit,and the actual monthly incidence rates were within the 95%CI of the predicted value.Conclusions In recent years,the incidence of HFMD in Hebei province has shown a downward trend.According to its epidemic characteristics,the prevention and control for the key populations and regions should be strengthened.The constructed ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,2)12 model can be used for short-term prediction of HFMD in Hebei province.

关 键 词：手足口病 流行特征 ARIMA 预测 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]