俄罗斯与非洲的军事合作:混合战争的视角  

An Analysis of Russia's Military Cooperation in Africa:A Hybrid War Perspective

作　　者：卓振伟 武斌 Zhuo Zhenwei;Wu Bin

机构地区：[1]中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2023年第2期118-139,159,160,共24页West Asia and Africa

基　　金：中央党校(国家行政学院)创新工程项目“非洲与拉美的战略支点国家研究”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自2012年普京开启新一届总统任期以来,尤其是克里米亚事件后,俄罗斯加速重返非洲的步伐。俄罗斯采用混合战争策略,以军事合作为突破口,综合考虑其国家战略利益、致胜联盟利益、国家相对实力和机会空间等因素,重视成本控制和经济实效,将与西方国家的竞争控制在灰色地带。在实践中,俄罗斯争夺非洲的武器市场,引导非洲的反西方舆论斗争,选择支点国家,借力私营军事公司,增强了俄罗斯在非洲的政治影响,获得了一些经济利益。俄罗斯对非军事合作日益被西方国家视为重要威胁并遭到反制,这也使非洲国家陷入“选边站队”的困境。同时,经济实力不济、意识形态吸引力不足制约着俄罗斯对非战略的实施和国家利益的实现。随着乌克兰危机的升级,其混合战争策略将面临更多挑战,但仍会是俄罗斯对非军事合作的主要手段。Since Putin started his first term as president in 2012,especially after the Crimea Crisis,Russia has accelerated its pace of returning to Africa.Russia takes hybrid warfare as a guidance,takes military cooperation as a breakthrough,comprehensively considers factors including strategic interests,winner alliance's interests,national capacity and opportunity space,pays attention to cost control and economic efficiency,and controls the struggle with Western powers in gray zone level.In the practice,Russia scrambles for Africa's arms market,guides anti-Western public opinion struggles in Africa,selects fulcrum countries,and makes use of private military companies,enhancing its geopolitical influence and economic interests in Africa.Russia's military cooperation with Africa is increasingly regarded as an important threat and has been countered by the Western powers,which has also put African countries in the predicament of having to choose sides.However,poor economic strength and limited ideological influence restrict the implementation of Russia's strategy towards Africa and the realization of its national interests.Although facing more challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the hybrid warfare strategy will still dominate Russia's military cooperation in Africa.

关 键 词：俄非关系 军事合作 混合战争 乌克兰危机 

分 类 号：E512[军事—军事理论] E4