全要素生产率对货币政策有效性的影响研究——理论机制与数值模拟  

Total Factor Productivity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy:Theory and Quantitative Analysis

作　　者：陈小亮[1] 陈伟泽 陈彦斌[2] CHEN Xiaoliang;CHEN Weize;CHEN Yanbin(Institute of Economics,CASS;School of Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2023年第4期203-224,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073141);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103195);国家自然科学基金专项项目(72141306)的资助。

摘　　要：近年来中国经济持续面临下行压力,需要货币政策加强逆周期调节,但是货币政策的有效性却有所下降,只有设法提高货币政策有效性,才能较好地促进中国经济平稳发展。已有文献从数量型与价格型货币政策“双失效”、对外开放程度提高、金融摩擦、政策不确定性加剧等视角分析了中国货币政策有效性下降的原因,不过鲜有文献深入考察全要素生产率对货币政策有效性的影响。本文通过构建包含实体部门和虚拟部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,深入剖析全要素生产率增速下滑对货币政策有效性的影响。研究结果表明,2012年以来全要素生产率增速持续下滑导致中国经济从无泡沫均衡跌入了泡沫均衡状态,从而使得货币政策有效性下降了20%左右,可见全要素生产率增速下滑是货币政策有效性下降的重要原因之一。进一步研究显示,至少要将全要素生产率增速提高1.47个百分点以上,才能让中国经济从泡沫均衡状态回归到无泡沫均衡状态,从而显著提高货币政策的有效性。In recent years,the effectiveness of China's monetary policy has declined significantly.To explore the reasons for the decline in the effectiveness of the monetary policy,it is necessary to conduct a thorough investigation of China's monetary policy transmission mechanism.Combining economic theory and the actual situation of China's economic operation,we find that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy can be divided into three main links.The first link is whether the monetary policy operations,such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts implemented by the central bank,can smoothly affect the behavior of the banking sector and other financial institutions.The second link is whether the banking sector and other financial institutions can smoothly release funds to the corporate sector.The third link is whether the enterprise sector uses the raised funds for productive investment and obtains final products.The existing studies mainly focus on the first two links and pay less attention to the third link.However,judging from reality,the role played by the third link must be addressed.In recent years,China's TFP growth rate has declined significantly,reducing the real economy's return on investment and development momentum.It is likely to be an important reason why companies are unwilling to invest in the real economy,which leads to a decline in the effectiveness of the monetary policy.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes the real and virtual sectors to systematically study the impact of the decline in TFP growth rate on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy and draws three main conclusions.First,the sharp decline in TFP growth is a fundamental reason for the decline in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.The quantitative results of numerical simulation experiments reveal that,compared with that of 2000~2011,the growth rate of TFP dropped sharply from 2012 to 2019,reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy by approxim

关 键 词：全要素生产率 货币政策 脱实向虚 要素市场化改革 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]