企业职工基本养老保险基金收支预测与可持续风险监测预警——基于新冠疫情冲击的情景分析  

Income-Expenditure Forecast and Sustainable Risk Monitoring and Warning on the Fund of the Basic Pension Insurance for Enterprise Employees: Scenario Analysis Based on the Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic

作　　者：黄秀莲 褚福灵[1] Huang Xiulian;Chu Fuling(School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院,北京100081

出　　处：《财经研究》2023年第3期125-139,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(14AZD117);中国保险学会2021年度研究课题项目(ISCKT2021-N-1-03);中央财经大学2021年首期“科教融合研究生学术新星孵化计划”(202114)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情对基本养老保险的可持续性带来新挑战,研究构建基金可持续风险监测预警系统意义重大。文章根据疫情影响程度的差异,划分疫情低风险、疫情中风险和疫情高风险三种疫情风险情景,与无疫情情景进行对照,运用计量和精算模型,测算不同疫情风险情景下,2022-2051年企业职工基本养老保险基金的收支结余,并构建基金可持续风险监测预警系统。研究发现:首先,疫情影响每提高一个风险等级,基金收入累计现值平均降低23.45%,基金支出累计现值平均降低7%,而基金累计结余现值之和平均降低59.76%。在疫情冲击下,如果不采取有效的应对措施,企业职工基本养老保险基金累计结余将于2030-2032年耗尽,并且赤字规模逐年增大。其次,文章设计预警数据输入、预警过程、预警结果输出和预控对策的预警全流程,联动基金筹资风险、基金积累风险和基金给付风险,构建企业职工基本养老保险基金可持续风险监测预警系统。通过该预警系统研究发现,与无疫情情景相比,疫情提高了基金可持续风险警级。在不同情景下,可持续风险警级在测算前期均为轻警,持续年限有所差异,之后提升至中警。最后,文章对退休年龄、征缴率等关键警源进行敏感性监测。文章研究构建“筹资、积累和给付”三位一体的可持续风险监测预警系统,建立“预测、预警和预控”的风险防控体系,为有效应对和防范化解重大风险提供理论借鉴。The sustainability of fund for the basic pension insurance for enterprise employee is weakening in China with the current income and expenditure gap on the fund expanding year by year.Under different epidemic scenarios including epidemic-free scenario, low-risk scenario, medium-risk scenario and high-risk scenario, we use the econometric model and actuarial model to measure the income and expenditure balance of the fund of the basic pension insurance for enterprise employees from 2022 to 2051, and build a sustainable risk monitoring and warning system.The results show that: First, for each increase in the risk level of the COVID-19 epidemic impact, the cumulative present value of fund income during the measurement period decreases by an average of 23.45%, the cumulative present value of fund expenditure decreases by an average of 7%, and the sum of the cumulative present value of fund balance decreases by an average of 59.76%. Second, under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, if effective measures are not taken, the cumulative balance of the basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees will be exhausted range from 2030 to 2032, and the scale of the deficit will increase year by year. Third, this paper builds a sustainable risk monitoring and warning system by linking fund-raising risk,fund-accumulation risk and fund-payment risk.The marginal contribution is as follows: First, this paper reasonably assesses the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on fund income and expenditure by the DID method and scenario analysis. Second, this paper establishes a monitoring and warning system for the sustainable risk of pension fund in a trinity of “raising, accumulation and payment”. It not only clarifies the theoretical construction of warning system, but also performs empirical analysis. Third, this paper proposes a risk prevention and control system of “forecast, warning and pre-control”. Based on the forecast results of fund income and expenditure, it analyzes the sustainable risk monitoring and warning syste

关 键 词：基金收支预测 可持续风险 风险监测预警 新冠疫情 

分 类 号：F840.32[经济管理—保险] F840.67