中国香港加入RCEP的经济效应及对策分析  

Analysis on the Economic Effects and Countermeasures of Hong Kong's AccessiontotheRCEP

作　　者：尹文渊 林志刚[2] 刘艺卓[3] Yin Wenyuan;Lin Zhigang;Liu Yizhuo

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院数据中心,北京100710 [2]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院信用研究所,北京100710 [3]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院台港澳所,北京100710

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（台、港、澳研究）》2022年第4期56-63,共8页TAIWAN,HONGKONG AND MACAO STUDIES

摘　　要：中国香港是亚太地区主要投资来源地,与RCEP成员经济体贸易投资合作密切,积极融入区域经济合作是实现香港地区经济复苏和长期繁荣的需要。全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)定量测度结果显示,加入RCEP对香港地区GDP增幅、贸易条件、社会福利、进出口等宏观经济指标具有明显的正面提升效应,同时对各部门产出的影响也利大于弊。因此,中国香港应争取早日加入RCEP,推进与各成员经济体技术和标准对接,抓住粤港澳大湾区和“一带一路”建设的契机,积极调整自身产业结构,不断提升与内地的合作水平,充分发挥香港地区作为中国内地与国际社会接轨的枢纽的作用。Hong Kong is a major source of investment in the Asia-Pacific region,and has close trade and investment cooperation with RCEP member economies.Actively integrating into regional economic cooperation meets the needs of realizing Hong Kong's economic recovery and long-term prosperity.The quantitative measurement results of Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)show that joining RCEP has obvious positive effects on Hong Kong's GDP growth rate,terms of trade,social welfare,exports,imports and other macroeconomic indicators,and the benefits outweigh the disadvantages in terms of industrial output also.It is suggested that Hong Kong should actively strive to join RCEP at an early date,promote the connection with the technologies and standards of other member economies,seize the opportunity of the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and"The Belt and Road Initiative",continuously improve the level of cooperation with the mainland,actively adjust its industrial structure,and give full play to Hong Kong's role as a hub for connecting the Chinese mainland with the international community.

关 键 词：中国香港 RCEP 区域一体化 GTAP 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]