科技革命与国际秩序变迁的逻辑探析  

A Logical Exploration of the Relationship between Scientific and Technological Revolutions and the Change of International Orders

作　　者：郑华[1] 聂正楠 Zheng Hua;Nie Zhengnan

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际政治）》2022年第1期19-35,共17页International politics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目“美国国家安全战略研究”(项目编号:20JZD056);“上海交通大学科技发展研究基金”资助的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：科技革命是人类社会发展的原动力,也是推动国际秩序变迁的核心要素之一。人类历史上发生的四次科技革命均是以科学理论进步为先导、技术突破为表征的整体性革命。在人类科技革命发展的进程中,科技革命与国际秩序之间交织互动,推动国际秩序经历了欧洲百年均势、东西方冷战以及“一超多强”等数次变迁。为深入探究科技革命与国际秩序变迁的内在逻辑和运作机理,本文从科学家、国家和国际体系三个维度对四次科技革命逐一展开了分析,认为科技革命是导致国际秩序变迁的重要因素之一,但国际秩序反过来也会影响科技革命的模式。例如:在第一、二次科技革命中,首先是科学革命引发了技术革命,然后推动了增强主权国家综合国力的迅速增大,进而导致欧洲百年均势秩序的生成与崩溃,这是科技革命(A)直接推动国际秩序变迁(B)的模式,即A一B模式;在第三次科技革命和人类当前正经历的第四次科技革命中,无论是冷战时期的两极均势,还是后冷战时期美国主导的自由霸权秩序,都是国际秩序(B)直接推动科技革命(A)的发展模式,即B一A模式。总的看,科学家的身份认同、国家能力和国际规则与规范在科技革命与国际秩序交织互动过程中,是导致国际秩序变迁模式产生差异的主要原因。从这一意义上讲,当前中美两国之间的科技竞争无疑会为后疫情时代国际秩序的发展趋势提供新的动力、思路和启示。Scientific and technological revolution play as the role of the driving force for the development of human society and one of the core elements to promote the change of international order.The four scientific and technological revolutions in human history are in some sense led by the progress of scientific theories and characterized by technological breakthroughs.Driven by the scientific and technological revolution,the international order has gone through changes from the"Concert of Europe"to the Cold War between East and West,and to the US dominated system in the course of the scientific and technological revolutions.This paper has analyzed the four scientific and technological revolutions and their impacts on international orders one by one from the perspectives of scientist,stateand international system in order to delve into the internal logic and operating mechanism of the revolution of science and technology and the change of international order,arguing that scientific and technological revolution is one of the important factors leading to the change of international order,but the latter can also affect the former's pattern.For example,it is found that scientific and technological breakthroughs,along with the movement of scientists and the diffusion of technology,have accelerated the growth of power,changed the power structure in the international system and promoted the change of the international order in the process of the first two scientific and technological revolutions.This paper proposes a model in which the technological revolution directly contributes to the transformation of the international order,which we can call A-B mode,but the opposite is also true in the last two scientific and technological revolutions,which we can call B-A mode.In summary,the identity of scientists,national capabilities and international rules and norms account for the main factors leading to the difference of international order change patterns in the interwoven interactions between scientific and technological revolut

关 键 词：科技革命 国际秩序 大国科技竞争 技术扩散 中美技术关系 

分 类 号：G321[文化科学] D81[政治法律—国际关系]