不确定性视角下考虑“双预期”的动态多属性决策方法  

Double Expectation-Based Dynamic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method from Uncertainty Perspective

作　　者：马珍珍 邱菀华[2] MA Zhenzhen;QIU Wanhua(Logistics School,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院物流学院,北京101149 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2023年第2期310-322,共13页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72204026,72074001)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对不确定环境下的多阶段、多属性决策问题,文章提出了一种不确定视角下考虑双预期目标的动态多属性决策方法.为全方位评估决策对象,从时间维度研究对象的动态发展特征,综合横向对比和纵向发展两个方面,构建了“差异化”发展状态下针对区间数的双重预期设置方法;结合决策者的心理特征、区间分布状态以及信息不确定度的影响作用,基于前景理论进行信息融合及排序.最后,以应用型高校产教融合绩效评估问题为案例背景,通过分析和方法比较验证所提方法的实用性和合理性.To solve a multi-stage and multi-attribute decision-making problem under the context of uncertainty,a dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method considering double expectation points was proposed from perspective of uncertainty.To comprehensively evaluate the performance of alternatives,the dynamic development characteristics of alternatives was considered along the time dimension.Then in view of various speeds of development status,double expected reference points were set from perspectives of horizontal comparison and vertical development of alternatives for interval numbers.In addition,through combining the influence of decision maker’s psychological characteristics,information distribution characteristics,and information uncertainty,a prospect theory-based method was constructed for information aggregation and alternatives’ ranking.Lastly,the proposed method was applied in one case which aimed to evaluate the performance of the integration of production and education(take the application-oriented university as an example).Accordingly,through the case study and method comparison,the proposed method is thereby demonstrated to be applicable and reasonable.

关 键 词：前景理论 双预期 信息不确定度 动态决策 产教融合 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]