疫情期间的“消费与产出偏离之谜”:只是失业率问题吗?  

The Mysterious Divergence between Consumption and Output during the COVID-19 Period:Just an Unemployment Issue?

作　　者：刘金东 宁磊 姜令臻 Liu Jindong;Ning Lei;Jiang Lingzhen

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院,山东济南250014 [2]上海财经大学高等研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国民经济管理）》2022年第10期19-31,共13页NATIONAL ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71803118,72141303,71874105);山东省社会科学规划研究重大委托项目(20AWTJ21)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情期间出现了消费偏离产出轨道的反常现象,表现出超速下降和恢复迟缓的特征。文章为了探讨该谜题背后的经济原因,通过构建一个动态随机一般均衡模型,对这种现象进行了深入探讨,发现家庭收入不确定性增加和就业质量下降导致的劳动力市场资源错配是产生这一现象的重要原因,单纯的失业率上升仅会起到触发作用。其中,劳动力市场资源错配问题将会造成长期影响。同时,文章也发现疫情对于大企业和中小企业就业人员的影响具有很强的异质性。具体而言,由于大企业员工受到的失业风险和收入不确定性较小,因此疫情主要通过社会平均工资来影响退休后的收入。但对于中小企业员工而言,由于劳动力市场的疲软导致的收入结构性变化具有累积作用,这就导致中年群体受到疫情的影响最大。因此根据文章的结论,保就业不能仅仅围绕就业数量,还要稳住就业质量不下降,保证劳动力市场供需匹配,尽可能避免劳动力市场资源错配带来的家庭永久性收入损失和对中国经济运行产生的长期效应。另外,中小企业就业者和青年群体受到的消费负面影响最大,他们受到的就业冲击最大,应保障其就业与收入。文章的研究结论对当前中国制定更加精准、可持续的稳就业和促消费政策具有一定的参考价值。Summary:During the period of COVID-19,consumption plummeted and deviated from output,showing the characteristics of speeding down and slow recovery.The abnormal phenomenon occurred not only in China,but also in other countries in the world.It is taken for granted that consumption growth declined more in the first quarter because of the limited population flow during the epidemic.However,with the cancellation of the home isolation policy and the resumption of work and production,the recovery of household consumption was still relatively slow when the unemployment rate did not rise significantly and family income was repaired rapidly.This overreaction of demand to the impact is difficult to be explained by the traditional consumption theory.According to the permanent income hypothesis,households have the motivation to smooth consumption,so the fluctuation of household consumption is less than that of income.In addition to the impact of the isolation policy,what other factors lead to the sharp decline of consumption,even more than the decline of output?What measures should the government take to deal with this situation?In this paper,we quantitatively explore the fundamental reason behind the puzzle thing that the consumption growth rate dropped more than the GDP growth rate during the epidemic in China using a heterogeneous agent lifecycle model.The model contains a variety of heterogeneities which include agent's age,type of working firm,employment status,income status before unemployment,and the labor income risk.The main findings are as follows:First,the rising unemployment rate only accounts for 6.3%of the decline in consumption,while the declining employment quality under resource mismatch accounts for 26.1%and the increasing income uncertainty accounts for 29%.Second,both the rising unemployment rate and the increasing income uncertainty may recover in the short term,but the decline of employment quality caused by the mismatch of labor market resources will have a long-term impact.Third,the impacts on enterpr

关 键 词：动态结构生命周期模型 收入不确定性 就业不足 资源错配 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]