Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power  

作　　者：Yanyi He Kun Yang Martin Wild Kaicun Wang Dan Tong Changkun Shao Tianjun Zhou 

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth System Science,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling,Institute for Global Change Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [2]National Tibetan Plateau Data Center,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [3]Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,ETH Zurich,Zurich 8001,Switzerland [4]Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100081,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《National Science Review》2023年第1期149-160,共12页国家科学评论（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFA0605400);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205171);the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M701839);the Shuimu Tsinghua Scholar Program。

摘　　要：As Earth's primary energy source,surface downward solar radiation(R_(s))determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation.Future projections of R_(s)based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon-neutrality goal.Here we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find systematic biases in simulating historical R_(s)values likely due to model biases in cloud cover and clear-sky radiation,resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in Based on emergent constraints,we obtain credible R_(s)with narrowed uncertainties by~56%in the mid-twenty-first century and show that the mean R_(s)change during 2050-2069 relative to 1995-2014 is 30%more brightening than the raw projections.Particularly in North China and Southeast China with higher power demand,the constrained projections present more significant brightening,highlighting the importance of considering the spatial changes in future R_(s)when locating new solar energy infrastructures.

关 键 词：surface downward solar radiation CMIP6 model emergent constraint future change solar energy 

分 类 号：P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TK51[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]