不同商业模式下燃煤电厂CCUS投资决策研究  

Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes

作　　者：聂鹏飞[1,2] 高哲远 王喜平 NIE Pengfei;GAO Zheyuan;WANG Xiping(Hebei Datang International Wangtan Power Generation Co.,Ltd.,Tangshan 063611,China;Datang International Power Generation Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100033,China;Department of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大唐国际王滩发电有限责任公司,河北唐山063611 [2]大唐国际发电股份有限公司,北京100033 [3]华北电力大学经济管理系,河北保定071000

出　　处：《热力发电》2023年第4期63-71,共9页Thermal Power Generation

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB19YJ011)。

摘　　要：准确测算碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)的投资价值和投资时机是燃煤电厂CCUS投资决策的关键。针对以往研究仅仅关注一体化模式下CCUS投资决策这一不足,基于实物期权理论,考虑碳价格不确定性及CCUS投资成本递减情况下CCUS投资的期权价值,从燃煤电厂视角建立了一体化模式和合资模式下CCUS的投资决策模型,并通过模型求解得到不同模式下燃煤电厂CCUS投资的期权价值和投资时机。基于此模型,进一步通过算例分析了额外电力配额、电价补贴、投资补贴等不同政策激励及碳价波动对CCUS投资决策的影响,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。Measuring the investment value and investment timing accurately is crucial for coal-fired power plants’ carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS) investment. Different from the existing studies on the CCUS decision making only considering the integration mode, this study establishes the decision-making model of the CCUS investment of coal-fired power plants under the integration mode and joint venture mode from the perspective of coal-fired power plants. The decision-making model is established based on the theory of real options, considering the uncertainties of carbon price and the decreasing CCUS investment cost, and the displayed solutions of the option value and investment timing of CCUS investment in coal-fired power plants under different modes are obtained by solving the model. Based on this model, the impact of different policy incentives such as additional power quota,electricity price subsidy, investment subsidy, and carbon price volatility on CCUS investment decisions are further analyzed through numerical examples. On this basis, some policy suggestions are provided finally.

关 键 词：投资决策 一体化模式 合资模式 实物期权 CCUS 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F832.5X701